Is There an "Emboldenment" Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq

Author contact info: Radha Iyengar Harvard University Center for Government and International Studies 1730 Cambridge Street, Room 408 Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617/496-6085 Fax: 617/496-1636 E-Mail: riyengar@rwj.harvard.edu Jonathan Monten International Security Program Research Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affair Kennedy School of Government Harvard University 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Mailbox 134 Cambridge, MA, 02138 E-Mail: Jonathan_Monten@ksg.harvard.edu Are insurgents affected by information on US casualty sensitivity? Using data on attacks and variation in access to international news across Iraqi provinces, we identify an "emboldenment" effect by comparing the rate of insurgent attacks in areas with higher and lower access to information about U.S news after public statements critical of the war. We find in periods after a spike in war-critical statements, insurgent attacks increases by 5-10 percent. The results suggest that insurgent groups respond rationally to expected probability of US withdrawal. As such counterinsurgency should consider deterrence and incapacitation rather than simply search and destroy missions.