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Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market

by: Matthew J. Salganik, Peter S. Dodds, Duncan J. Watts
Science, Vol. 311, No. 5762. (10 February 2006), pp. 854-856.

X Abstract

Hit songs, books, and movies are many times more successful than average, suggesting that "the best" alternatives are qualitatively different from "the rest"; yet experts routinely fail to predict which products will succeed. We investigated this paradox experimentally, by creating an artificial "music market" in which 14,341 participants downloaded previously unknown songs either with or without knowledge of previous participants' choices. Increasing the strength of social influence increased both inequality and unpredictability of success. Success was also only partly determined by quality: The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible. 10.1126/science.1121066

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This article has been bookmarked 22 times, initially on 2006-02-25.

2009-11-26 User normaali
2009-11-25 Group Complex Networks Research Group
2009-07-24 User mfuhr
2009-03-06 User rgoldsto
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2008-10-12 User hardin
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2008-08-14 User krisl , 1 note

social influence=information about choices, or preferences, of others (which users were free to ignore) "Although, on average, quality is positively related to success, songs of any given quality can experience a wide range of outcomes. In general, the "best" songs never do very badly, and the "worst" songs never do extremely well, by almost any other result is possible."

2009-11-03 19:15:06
2008-08-13 User gdean338
2008-03-08 User pbrown1655
2008-02-02 Group Sociology
User anton-tayanovskyy
2007-12-01 User Lemyyri
2007-10-22 User dartar
2007-04-20 User ChaTo , 1 note

Commented in NYTimes: Is Justin Timberlake a Product of Cumulative Advantage? by Watts http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/magazine/15wwlnidealab.t.html

Participants download songs in a website and rate them:

Experiment 1 [8 independent trials]: songs are shown in a rectangular grid in random order

Experiment 2 [8 independent trials]: songs are shown in a single column ordered by downloads so far, ties broken arbitrarily

Inequality is consistently higher [gini=~0.5 vs gini=~0.3] in the experiment #2. Variance of each song's success was also higher in experiment #2 (more unpredictable).

"Success was also only partly determined by quality: The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible."

2007-04-20 10:31:00
2006-11-13 User voiklis
Group ColDyn
2006-10-12 User amac
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2006-05-07 User junwang4
2006-02-25 User kentsis
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