Assessing Middle Eastern trajectories: Egypt after Mubarak

This article assesses Egypt's chances of democratization. A parallel is drawn between the processes of civil society mobilization that led to the overthrow of the authoritarian regimes of Zhan Videnov in Bulgaria and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. In the latter case, democratic, secular civil society has to compete with the larger, better organized and more efficient Islamic civil society. The internal dynamics of the Muslim Brotherhood, secular civil society, Egyptian military and international factors will probably moderate Islamist trends. However, this moderation does not necessarily imply genuine democratization. More likely, the future Egyptian regime will be a hybrid one accommodating both Islamist and democratic systems of values within a relatively stable and balanced political construct.