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Bayesian Single-Exponential Kinetics in Single-Molecule Experiments and Simulations Export

The Journal of Physical Chemistry B, Vol. 113, No. 36. (10 September 2009), pp. 12410-12423.

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PMID: 19681587 In this work, we develop a fully Bayesian method for the calculation of probability distributions of single-exponential rates for any single-molecule process. These distributions can even be derived when no transitions from one state to another have been observed, since in that case the data can be used to estimate a lower bound on the rate. Using a Bayesian hypothesis test, one can easily test whether a transition occurs at the same rate or at different rates in two data sets. We illustrate these methods with molecular dynamics simulations of the folding of a β-sheet protein. However, the theory presented here can be used on any data from simulation or experiment for which a two-state description is appropriate.


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