Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example Export

@article{Fischhoff2006, abstract = {Abstract\ \ Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic.}, author = {Fischhoff, Baruch and de Bruin, W\"{a}ndi and G\"{u}ven\c{c}, \"{U}mit and Caruso, Denise and Brilliant, Larry}, citeulike-article-id = {5909100}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.springerlink.com/content/t47n588546177962}, day = {1}, doi = {10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8}, journal = {Journal of Risk and Uncertainty}, keywords = {avian, epidemic, influenza, modelling, pandemic, planning, policy, risk, turs-project}, month = {September}, number = {1}, pages = {131--149}, posted-at = {2009-10-08 11:55:40}, priority = {0}, title = {Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8}, volume = {33}, year = {2006} }

TY - JOUR ID - Fischhoff2006 L3 - citeulike-article-id:5909100 N2 - Abstract  Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. IS - 1 JF - Journal of Risk and Uncertainty EP - 149 TI - Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example VL - 33 SP - 131 KW - avian KW - epidemic KW - influenza KW - modelling KW - pandemic KW - planning KW - policy KW - risk KW - turs-project AU - Fischhoff, Baruch AU - de Bruin, Wändi AU - Güvenç, Ümit AU - Caruso, Denise AU - Brilliant, Larry PY - 2006/09/01/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 ER -