Sun, 27 Jul 2008 06:03:53 BST CiteULike: Tag probablity http://www.citeulike.org/tag/probablity CiteULike.org en-gb Copyright © 2004-2008 citeulike.org http://www.citeulike.org/user/stefanherzog/article/271455 <i>Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. In Press, Corrected Proof</i><br /><br />Previous research demonstrated that if attention is paid to a supraliminally presented number, a subsequent quantitative estimate assimilates towards this number (the anchor effect). One explanation states that this effect is merely caused by the heightened accessibility level of the anchor value itself. Based on this numeric priming account and generalizing from subliminal priming studies, we expected a short-lived subliminal anchor effect. We presented participants subliminally with a low or high anchor value (10 or 90) and next they had to estimate the probability of an epidemic. Half of them were pressed to do this quickly. Only under time pressure, a significant anchor effect emerged. Subliminal anchoring: The effects of subliminally presented numbers on probability estimates Reitsma-Van Daamen doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2005.05.001 Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. In Press, Corrected Proof 2005-08-02T09:06:19-00:00 Journal of Experimental Social Psychology In Press, Corrected Proof anchoring judgment probablity subliminal http://www.citeulike.org/user/stefanherzog/article/210426 <i>J Neurosci, Vol. 25, No. 19. (11 May 2005), pp. 4806-4812.</i><br /><br />Anticipated reward magnitude and probability comprise dual components of expected value (EV), a cornerstone of economic and psychological theory. However, the neural mechanisms that compute EV have not been characterized. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined neural activation as subjects anticipated monetary gains and losses that varied in magnitude and probability. Group analyses indicated that, although the subcortical nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activated proportional to anticipated gain magnitude, the cortical mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) additionally activated according to anticipated gain probability. Individual difference analyses indicated that, although NAcc activation correlated with self-reported positive arousal, MPFC activation correlated with probability estimates. These findings suggest that mesolimbic brain regions support the computation of EV in an ascending and distributed manner: whereas subcortical regions represent an affective component, cortical regions also represent a probabilistic component, and, furthermore, may integrate the two. Distributed neural representation of expected value. B Knutson J Taylor M Kaufman R Peterson G Glover doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0642-05.2005 J Neurosci, Vol. 25, No. 19. (11 May 2005), pp. 4806-4812. 2005-05-25T14:27:33-00:00 2005 J Neurosci 1529-2401 25 19 4806 4812 fmri probablity reward uncertainty value