CiteULike: Tag risk

Metabolic Syndrome Is not a Risk Factor for Kidney Dysfunction in Obese Non-diabetic Subjects.

A Gatti — 2008-04-13T11:47:47-00:00

Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), Vol. 16, No. 4. (April 2008), pp. 899-901.

Objective:To investigate whether insulin resistance (IR) and the metabolic syndrome (MS) are associated with kidney dysfunction in obese non-diabetic (OND) subjects.Methods and Procedures:Three-hundred and eighty (113M/267F; age = 41 +/- 14 years) OND subjects (BMI >/= 30 kg/m(2); range = 43 +/- 8 kg/m(2)) were studied. Anthropometric measures, blood pressure, fasting glucose, insulin, lipid profile, and serum creatinine were evaluated. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated (e-GFR) with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as e-GFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2).Results:e-GFR was associated with gender (being lower in women) (P = 0.001) and age (P < 0.0001). CKD was present in 32 subjects (8.4%), who were older (P < 0.0001) and more frequently affected by hypertension (P = 0.04) as compared to subjects without CKD. MS was present in 212 (55.8%) subjects. They were older (P< 0.001), had lower e-GFR (P = 0.02) and were more frequently affected by CKD (odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.3, 1.1-5.1) than those without MS. However, differences in e-GFR values and in the risk of CKD were no longer statistically significant after adjusting for age (P = 0.99 for e-GFR and OR, 95% CI = 1.2, 0.5-2.8 for the risk of CKD, respectively). Homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA(IR)) index was neither higher in subject with CKD (P = 0.1) nor inversely correlated with e-GFR (r = 0.1, P = 0.1).Discussion:In OND individuals the risk of CKD is independent of the MS and related abnormalities. This suggests that these individuals are not susceptible to a further deleterious role on kidney function on the top of that played by obesity itself.Obesity (2008) 16 4, 899-901. doi:10.1038/oby.2007.59.

Surveillance as Social Sorting: Privacy, Risk and Automated Discrimination

David Lyon — 2006-03-08T15:29:34-00:00

(24 October 2002)

Text offers an innovative approach to the interaction between societies and their technologies. Proposes that surveillance is not simply a contemporary threat to individual freedoms, but also a powerful means of creating and reinforcing long-term social differences. A reference source for a wide variety of courses. Hardcover, softcover available from the publisher.

The perils of relying on interested parties to evaluate scientific quality.

W Wagner — 2007-01-07T12:37:37-00:00

Am J Public Health, Vol. 95 Suppl 1 (2005)

Recently, there has been a trend in both civil litigation and regulatory law to circumvent the scientific community's collective judgment on the quality of individual studies with an adversarial process of evaluating scientific quality using interest groups. The Supreme Court's Daubert v Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc opinion and two recent "good science" laws passed by Congress adopt an adversarial process informed by affected parties for reviewing and screening scientific quality. These developments are unwise. Both theory and experience instruct that an adversarial, interest group-dominated approach to evaluating scientific quality will lead to the unproductive deconstruction of science, further blur the distinction between policy and scientific judgments, and result in poor decisions because the courts and agencies that preside over these "good science" contests sometimes lack the scientific competency needed to make sound decisions.

Competitive Analysis to Mitigate Risk

Himelfarb — 2006-07-19T22:13:19-00:00

Competitive Intelligence Magazine, Vol. 9, No. 1. (February 2006), pp. 29-30.

MRI safety review

Mary Dempsey — 2005-11-22T09:27:59-00:00

Seminars in Ultrasound, CT, and MRI, Vol. 23, No. 5. (October 2002), pp. 392-401.

Magnetic resonance is an extremely powerful imaging tool which does not expose patients to ionizing radiation. However, there are risks associated with the MR environment which all staff must be aware of and eliminate. The aim of this article is to highlight the well known and not so well known potentially adverse interactions. Although many safety investigations have been carried out at up to 1.5T, the reader will be reminded that as many centres install magnets of 2.0T and above, much of the current safety literature cannot be simply extrapolated to these higher field strengths and further investigations will be required to reassure staff and patients of the limits of their safe use.

Health effects of static magnetic fields--a review of the epidemiological evidence

Maria Feychting — 2005-11-22T09:26:10-00:00

Progress in Biophysics and Molecular Biology, Vol. 87, No. 2-3. ( 2005), pp. 241-246.

Potential health effects of static magnetic fields have received far less attention than, for example, power frequency or radiofrequency fields. Static fields are found in certain occupational settings, e.g. in the aluminium and chloralkali industries, in arc-welding processes, and certain railways systems. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for medical diagnosis is another source. This paper summarizes the epidemiological evidence of static magnetic field exposure and long-term health effects. There are only a few epidemiological studies available, and the majority of these have focused on cancer risks. There are some reports on reproductive outcomes, and sporadic studies of other outcomes. Overall, few occupational studies have focused specifically on effects of static magnetic field exposure, and exposure assessment have consequently been poor or non-existent. Results from studies that have estimated static magnetic field exposure have not indicated any increased cancer risks, but they are generally based on small numbers of cases and crude exposure assessment. Control of confounding has been limited, and it is likely that the "healthy worker" effect have influenced the results. A few studies have reported results on reproductive outcomes among aluminium workers and MRI operators, but limitations in study designs prevent conclusions. A problem in epidemiological studies of static magnetic fields is that workers in exposed occupations are also exposed to a wide variety of other potentially harmful agents, including some known carcinogens. In conclusion, the available evidence from epidemiological studies is not sufficient to draw any conclusions about potential health effects of static magnetic field exposure.

The Role of Searching in Shaping Reactions to Earthquake Risk Information

Dennis Mileti — 2008-02-27T03:04:17-00:00

Social Problems, Vol. 44, No. 1. (1997), pp. 89-103.

We assessed public response to an earthquake prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area on a sample of households from eight Bay Area counties. Descriptive findings suggested that an earthquake culture exists in the study population. We tested criticisms of interactionist theory - its failure to take motives for behavior and social position into account - using multiple regression analysis. We conclude that motives and social position matter little in determining social action, and that more work is needed to determine how variations in new information create ambiguity, which differentially fosters searching, the formation of alternative definitions, and subsequent action.

Smoking, gender and rheumatoid arthritis-epidemiological clues to etiology - Results from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system

E Krishnan — 2004-12-28T17:10:52-00:00

Joint Bone Spine, Vol. 70, No. 6. (December 2003), pp. 496-502.

Objective.– This study was undertaken to confirm and extend our earlier observation that gender is a biological effect modifier of smoking–rheumatoid arthritis (RA) relationship in a diverse national survey sample in the United States. Methods.– Smoking history of 644 cases of RA and 1509 geographically matched general population controls were compared using weighted logistic regression. Results.– There were 644 respondents with RA (cases) and 1509 geographically matched controls. Cases were significantly younger, less educated, more likely to be single and female than controls. Among cases 57% were smokers while among controls 49% smoked. Among women, after adjusting for age, hysterectomy had an age adjusted odds ratio 1.45, (95% CI 0.99–2.10) and menopause an adjusted odds ratio 1.18 (95% CI 0.99–2.10) were associated with smoking. In univariable analysis ever-smoking was associated with increased risk of RA (odds ratio 1.34, 95% CI 1.0–1.81). Among the strata of smokers, there was an increasing gradient of risk with increasing exposure to smoking (P = 0.041). In separate multivariable models, smoking increased the risk in men (odds ratio 2.29, 95% CI 1.35–3.90) while in women the risk was not elevated (odds ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.67–1.42). After adjusting for the statistically significant interaction both female gender (odds ratio 2.30, 95% CI 1.39–3.83) and having ever smoked (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.36–3.94) emerged as significant risk factors for RA. Conclusions.– Gender interacts with smoking in by an unknown mechanism to lead to differential risk of RA

Whole-grain consumption is associated with a reduced risk of noncardiovascular, noncancer death attributed to inflammatory diseases in the Iowa Women's Health Study

David Jacobs — 2008-02-25T12:37:41-00:00

Am J Clin Nutr, Vol. 85, No. 6. (1 June 2007), pp. 1606-1614.

Background: It has recently been shown that oxidative stress, infection, and inflammation are predominant pathophysiologic factors for several major diseases. Objective: We investigated the association of whole-grain intake with death attributed to noncardiovascular, noncancer inflammatory diseases. Design: Postmenopausal women (n = 41 836) aged 55-69 y at baseline in 1986 were followed for 17 y. After exclusions for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, colitis, and liver cirrhosis at baseline, 27 312 participants remained, of whom 5552 died during the 17 y. A proportional hazards regression model was adjusted for age, smoking, adiposity, education, physical activity, and other dietary factors. Results: Inflammation-related death was inversely associated with whole-grain intake. Compared with the hazard ratios in women who rarely or never ate whole-grain foods, the hazard ratio was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.83) for those who consumed 4-7 servings/wk, 0.79 (0.66, 0.95) for 7.5-10.5 servings/wk, 0.64 (0.53, 0.79) for 11-18.5 servings/wk, and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for [≥]19 servings/wk (P for trend = 0.01). Previously reported inverse associations of whole-grain intake with total and coronary heart disease mortality persisted after 17 y of follow-up. Conclusions: The reduction in inflammatory mortality associated with habitual whole-grain intake was larger than that previously reported for coronary heart disease and diabetes. Because a variety of phytochemicals are found in whole grains that may directly or indirectly inhibit oxidative stress, and because oxidative stress is an inevitable consequence of inflammation, we suggest that oxidative stress reduction by constituents of whole grain is a likely mechanism for the protective effect.

C-Reactive Protein, Inflammatory Conditions, and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Ravi Dhingra — 2008-02-18T09:26:46-00:00

The American Journal of Medicine, Vol. 120, No. 12. (December 2007), pp. 1054-1062.

Background It is uncertain to what extent high C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations reflect the presence of inflammatory conditions in the community.Methods We evaluated 3782 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 55 years; 52% women) free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Logistic regression models examined the prevalence of common inflammatory conditions by CRP categories, while a separate matched case-referent analysis evaluated the prevalence of uncommon inflammatory conditions. Cox models were used to assess the influence of common inflammatory conditions on relations between CRP and incident cardiovascular disease.Results Common inflammatory conditions were reported by nearly half of the participants; these individuals were more likely to have markedly high CRP concentrations (>10 mg/L, P for trend = .001). In multivariable models, there were increased odds of having at least one common inflammatory condition with CRP concentrations of 1-3.0, 3.01-10, and >10 mg/L, compared with the referent category (<1 mg/L); the respective odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were 1.41 (1.07-1.86), 1.45 (1.07-1.98), and 1.64 (1.09-2.47) in men, and 1.08 (0.82-1.43), 1.07 (0.80-1.44), and 1.38 (0.97-1.96) in women. In case-referent analyses, uncommon inflammatory conditions were more common in individuals with CRP >10 mg/L compared with those with CRP <1 mg/L (12.1% vs 6.6%; P = .0001). In multivariable models, higher CRP categories were not associated with incident cardiovascular disease, and with additional adjustment for inflammatory conditions, results remained unchanged.Conclusion There is high prevalence of common and uncommon inflammatory conditions in individuals with high CRP concentrations. Higher CRP concentrations should be interpreted with caution in cardiovascular disease risk assessment.

The Term Structure of Defaultable Bond Prices

Philipp Schönbucher — 2007-05-29T21:32:55-00:00

In this paper we present a new methodology for modelling the development of the prices of defaultable zero coupon bonds that is inspired by the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) [19] approach to risk-free interest rate modelling. Instead of precisely specifying the mechanism that triggers the default we concentrate on modelling the development of the term structure of the defaultable bonds and give conditions under which these dynamics are arbitrage-free. These conditions are a drift restriction ...

The Theory of Risk

Karl Borch — 2005-02-23T14:08:42-00:00

The classical theory of risk is reviewed. It is shown to be a static theory and this is adduced to be its main disadvantage. A dynamic theory was introduced by Lundberg in 1909. This is discussed and Lundberg's achievement is reaffirmed. However, it is pointed out that this theory, in spite of extensive mathematical development, has found virtually no application in practice. The major difficulty lies in the formulation of insurance problems in a convincing way. In the last section a new approach is called for. A model incorporating dynamic features of Lunberg's collective risk theory with more realistic constraints is investigated. Possible directions for future research are suggested.

Introduction--risk from a philosophy of science point of view.

T Malmfors — 2007-03-17T13:38:07-00:00

Toxicology, Vol. 181-182 (27 December 2002), pp. 109-113.

In this paper it is argued that risk assessment (RA) should be based on principles of philosophy of science. However, in the field of toxicology and the associated RA this is generally not the case. The aim of this presentation is to demonstrate various principles of philosophy of science, applied to 'risk'. Particularly in the context of RA, ignoring basic semantics and methodological principles creates unnecessary difficulties and confusion. Better knowledge about, e.g. semantics and the role and structure of theories, could help to avoid misconceptions and disagreements. We suggest a general theory of risk, which makes an attempt to answer the unequivocal question: what is risk?

Defining risk

Baruch Fischhoff — 2007-03-17T13:33:53-00:00

Policy Sciences, Vol. V17, No. 2. (1 October 1984), pp. 123-139.

The risk epidemic in medical journals.

JA Skolbekken — 2007-03-15T21:14:13-00:00

Soc Sci Med, Vol. 40, No. 3. (February 1995), pp. 291-305.

Searches in MEDLINE databases show a rapid increase in the number of articles with the term 'risk(s)' in the title and/or abstract in the period from 1967 to 1991. This trend is found in medical journals giving a general coverage of medicine and journals covering obstetrics and gynaecology in U.S.A., Britain and Scandinavia. The most rapid increase is, however, found in epidemiological journals. Comparisons of the developments in the occurrence of such terms as risk, hazard, danger and uncertainty show that the increasing frequency of the term risk in the medical literature can not be explained as a change in terminology alone. It is hypothesized that the ongoing trend, which resembles an epidemic, is a result of developments in science and technology, that has changed our beliefs about the locus of control from factors outside human control to factors inside our control. The origins of the epidemic may be traced to the development of such disciplines as probability statistics, increased focus on risk management and health promotion, with recent developments in computer technology as the factor responsible for the escalation seen in the past decade. With the cultural selection of risks in mind, the social construction of risk is discussed. Potentially harmful effects of such an epidemic are discussed, exemplified through controversies over current epidemiological risk construction and strategies for coronary risk reduction. It is finally argued that the risk epidemic reflects the social constructions of a particular culture at a particular time in history.

True Warnings and False Alarms about Technology, 1948-1971 (RFF Press)

Allan Mazur — 2007-04-27T14:15:56-00:00

(31 July 2002)

Today, there is broad agreement that CFCs destroy stratospheric ozone. On the other hand, research does not support claims that electromagnetic fields from transmission lines cause a noticeable increase of leukemia. But new allegations arise. Are manufactured chemicals in the environment distorting hormonal processes in our bodies? Are genetically modified foods a cause for concern?Addressing one of the most vexing problems in risk policy, Allan Mazur asks how we can tell, at an early stage, how seriously we should take a new warning. To identify hallmarks that could help predict the truth or falsity of an alleged hazard, Mazur analyzes 31 health warnings raised during the 1950s and 60s about diverse technologies including fluoridation, DDT, cyclamate, nuclear weapons testing, and birth control pills. Among his considerations are the initial source of an alarm, the biases held by its "sponsors," and the type of media coverage it received. With 30 to 50 years of hindsight, he identifies characteristics -- apparent from the outset of a controversy -- that most effectively distinguish between true warnings from false alarms.Mazur's findings do not provide certainty about which of today's warnings will prove true and which will prove false. But they do help us to make informed judgments about where it is best and most reasonable to direct our worries and resources.

Resolving disputes about toxicological risks during military conflict : the US Gulf War experience.

KC Hyams — 2007-07-11T13:26:33-00:00

Toxicol Rev, Vol. 24, No. 3. (2005), pp. 167-180.

In the last 15 years, the US and UK have fought two major wars in the Persian Gulf region. Controversy has arisen over the nature and causes of health problems among military veterans of these two wars. Toxic exposures have been hypothesised to cause the majority of the long-term health problems experienced by veterans of the 1991 Gulf War. The assessment of these toxic exposures and the resolution of controversy about their health effects provide a unique case study for understanding how toxicological disputes are settled in the US. Neither clinical examination of ill war veterans nor scientific research studies have been sufficient to answer contentious questions about toxic exposures. Numerous expert review panels have also been unable to resolve these controversies except for the US National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine (IOM). The IOM has conducted exhaustive and independent investigations based on peer-reviewed scientific literature related to potential health risks during the two Gulf Wars. In four recent studies, IOM committees identified a wide range of previously documented illnesses associated with common occupational and environmental exposures after considering thousands of relevant publications; however, they did not identify a new medical syndrome or a specific toxic exposure that caused widespread health problems among Gulf War veterans. These IOM studies have, therefore, added little to our basic knowledge of environmental hazards because most of the health effects were well known. Nevertheless, this expert review process, which is on-going, has been generally acceptable to a wide range of competing interests because the findings of the IOM have been perceived as scientifically credible and independent, and because none of the postulated toxicological risks have been completely ruled-out as possible causes of ill health among veterans.

Reckoning with Risk

Gerd Gigerenzer — 2007-02-18T08:36:51-00:00

(24 April 2003)

Toward a More Objective Understanding of the Evidence of Carcinogenic Risk

Deborah Mayo — 2006-11-09T19:53:22-00:00

I argue that although the judgments required to reach statistical risk assessments may reflect policy values, it does not follow that the task of evaluating whether a given risk assessment is warranted by the evidence need also be imbued with policy values. What has led many to conclude otherwise, I claim, stems from misuses of the statistical testing methods involved. I set out rules for interpreting what specific test results do and do not say about the extent of a given risk. By providing a more objective understanding of the evidence, such rules help in adjudicating conflicting risk assessments. To illustrate, I consider the risk assessment conflict at the EPA concerning the carcinogenicity of formaldehyde.

Inductive Risk and Values in Science

Heather Douglas — 2006-11-09T18:45:56-00:00

Philosophy of Science, Vol. 67, No. 4. (2000), pp. 559-579.

Although epistemic values have become widely accepted as part of scientific reasoning, non-epistemic values have been largely relegated to the "external" parts of science (the selection of hypotheses, restrictions on methodologies, and the use of scientific technologies). I argue that because of inductive risk, or the risk of error, non-epistemic values are required in science wherever non-epistemic consequences of error should be considered. I use examples from dioxin studies to illustrate how non-epistemic consequences of error can and should be considered in the internal stages of science: choice of methodology, characterization of data, and interpretation of results.

Weighing Risks and Benefits

Sven Hansson — 2004-12-28T15:38:27-00:00

Topoi, Vol. 23, No. 2., 145.

Reconciling Scientists' Beliefs about Radiation Risks and Social Norms: Explaining Preferred Radiation Protection Standards

Silva — 2007-07-17T11:19:13-00:00

Risk Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 3. (June 2007), pp. 755-773.

Prediction, Explanation, and Dioxin Biochemistry: Science in Public Policy

Heather Douglas — 2006-11-09T13:42:33-00:00

Foundations of Chemistry, Vol. V6, No. 1. (1 January 2004), pp. 49-63.

Regulating ChemicalsFrom Risks to Riskiness

Chapman — 2006-06-22T14:56:53-00:00

Risk Analysis, Vol. 26, No. 3. (June 2006), pp. 603-616.

Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight.

G Gigerenzer — 2006-12-11T14:39:00-00:00

BMJ, Vol. 327, No. 7417. (27 September 2003), pp. 741-744.

Environmental Risk, Precaution, and Scientific Rationality in the Context of WTO/NAFTA Trade Rules

Douglas Crawford-Brown — 2007-02-15T15:50:47-00:00

Risk Analysis, Vol. 24, No. 2. (2004), pp. 461-469.

This article considers the role of scientific rationality in understanding statements of risk produced by a scientific community. An argument is advanced that, while scientific rationality does impose constraints on valid scientific justifications for restrictions on products and practices, it also provides flexibility in the judgments needed to both develop and apply characterizations of risk. The implications of this flexibility for the understanding of risk estimates in WTO and NAFTA deliberations are explored, with the goal of finding an intermediate ground between the view that science unambiguously justifies or rejects a policy, and the view that science is yet another cultural tool that can be manipulated in support of any decision. The result is a proposal for a dialogical view of scientific rationality in which risk estimates are depicted as confidence distributions that follow from a structured dialogue of scientific panels focused on judgments of evidence, evidential reasoning, and epistemic analysis.

Evidence-based toxicology: a comprehensive framework for causation.

PS Guzelian — 2007-01-07T09:24:13-00:00

Hum Exp Toxicol, Vol. 24, No. 4. (April 2005), pp. 161-201.

This paper identifies deficiencies in some current practices of causation and risk evaluation by toxicologists and formulates an evidence-based solution. The practice of toxicology focuses on adverse health events caused by physical or chemical agents. Some relations between agents and events are identified risks, meaning unwanted events known to occur at some frequency. However, other relations that are only possibilities--not known to occur (and may never be realized)--also are sometimes called risks and are even expressed quantitatively. The seemingly slight differences in connotation among various uses of the word 'risk' conceal deeply philosophic differences in the epistemology of harm. We label as 'nomological possibilities' (not as risks) all predictions of harm that are known not to be physically or logically impossible. Some of these nomological possibilities are known to be causal. We term them 'epistemic'. Epistemic possibilities are risks. The remaining nomological possibilities are called 'uncertainties'. Distinguishing risks (epistemic relationships) from among all nomological possibilities requires knowledge of causation. Causality becomes knowable when scientific experiments demonstrate, in a strong, consistent (repeatable), specific, dose-dependent, coherent, temporal and predictive manner that a change in a stimulus determines an asymmetric, directional change in the effect. Many believe that a similar set of characteristics, popularly called the 'Hill Criteria', make it possible, if knowledge is robust, to infer causation from only observational (nonexperimental) studies, where allocation of test subjects or items is not under the control of the investigator. Until the 1980s, medical decisions about diagnosis, prevention, treatment or harm were often made authoritatively. Rather than employing a rigorous evaluation of causal relationships and applying these criteria to the published knowledge, the field of medicine was dominated by authority-based opinions, expressed by experts (or consensus groups of experts) relying on their education, training, experience, wisdom, prestige, intuition, skill and improvisation. In response, evidence-based medicine (EBM) was developed, to make a conscientious, explicit and judicious use of current best evidence in deciding about the care of individual patients. Now globally embraced, EBM employs a structured, 'transparent' protocol for carrying out a deliberate, objective, unbiased and systematic review of the evidence about a formally framed question. Not only in medicine, but now in dentistry, engineering and other fields that have adapted the methods of EBM, it is the quality of the evidence and the rigor of the analysis through evidence-based logic (EBL), rather than the professional standing of the reviewer, that leads to evidence-based conclusions about what is known. Recent studies have disclosed that toxicologists (individually or in expert groups), not unlike their medical counterparts prior to EBM, show distressing variations in their biases with regard to data selection, data interpretation and data evaluation when performing reviews for causation analyses. Moreover, toxicologists often fail to acknowledge explicitly (particularly in regulatory and policy-making arenas) when shortcomings in the evidence necessitate reliance upon authority-based opinions, rather than evidence-based conclusions (Guzelian PS, Guzelian CP. Authority-based explanation. Science 2004; 303: 1468-69). Accordingly, for answering questions about general and specific causation, we have constructed a framework for evidence-based toxicology (EBT), derived from the accepted principles of EBM and expressed succinctly as three stages, comprising 12 total steps. These are: 1) collecting and evaluating the relevant data (Source, Exposure, Dose, Diagnosis); 2) collecting and evaluating the relevant knowledge (Frame the question, Assemble the relevant (delimited) literature, Assess and critique the literature); and 3) Joining data with knowledge to arrive at a conclusion (General causation--answer to the framed question, Dose-response, Timing, Alternative cause, Coherence). The second of these stages (which amounts to an analysis of general causation), is addressed by an EBM-styled approach (adapted for the infrequent availability of human experimental studies in environmental toxicology). This involves assembling literature (through documented algorithms for database queries), excluding irrelevancies by use of delimiters as filters, and ranking and rating the remaining articles for strength of study design and for quality of execution gauged by application of either a ready-made quality assessment instrument or a custom designed checklist or scale. The results of this systematic review (including a structured review of relevant animal and in vitro studies) are then themselves systematically used to determine which causation criteria are fulfilled. Toxicology is maturing from a derivative science largely devoted to routinized performance and interpretation of safety tests, to a discipline deeply enmeshed in the remarkable advances in biochemistry and molecular biology to better understanding the nature and mechanism of adverse effects caused by chemicals. It is time for toxicologists, like scientists in other fields, to formalize a method for differentiating settled toxicological knowledge of risk from mere nomological possibility, and for communicating their conclusions to other scientists and the public. It is time for EBT.

Pesticide testing on human subjects: weighing benefits and risks.

DB Resnik — 2007-03-25T15:53:54-00:00

Environ Health Perspect, Vol. 113, No. 7. (July 2005), pp. 813-817.

In the debate surrounding testing pesticides on human subjects, two distinct positions have emerged. The first position holds that pesticide experiments on human subjects should be allowed, but only under stringent scientific and ethical standards. The second position asserts that these experiments should never be allowed. In this article, we evaluate what we consider to be the strongest argument for the second position--namely, that the benefits of the experiments are not significant enough to justify the risks posed to healthy subjects. We challenge this argument by examining the benefits and risks of testing pesticides on human subjects. We argue that a study that intentionally exposes humans subjects to pesticides should be permitted if a) the knowledge gained from the study is expected to promote human health; b) the knowledge cannot be reasonably obtained by other means; c) the study is not expected to cause serious or irreversible harm to the subjects; and d) appropriate safeguards are in place to minimize harm to the subjects.

Clinical inertia in the management of Type 2 diabetes metabolic risk factors.

RW Grant — 2005-05-12T18:48:22-00:00

Diabet Med, Vol. 21, No. 2. (February 2004), pp. 150-155.

AIMS: Delays in the initiation and intensification of medical therapy may be one reason patients with diabetes do not reach evidence-based goals for metabolic control. We assessed intensification of medical therapy over time, comparing the management of hyperglycaemia, hypertension, and hyperlipidaemia. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 598 adults with Type 2 diabetes receiving primary care in an academic medical centre from May 1997 to April 1999. We assessed whether patients failing to achieve standard treatment goals for haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), or low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol when last measured during 12 months (Year 1, 5/97-4/98) had increases in their corresponding medical regimen during the following 12 months (Year 2, 5/98-4/99). RESULTS: Among untreated patients in Year 1, seven of 12 (58%) of those above goal for HbA1c were initiated on medical therapy in Year 2, compared with 16 of 48 (34%) above SBP goal (P=0.02) and 26 of 115 (23%) above LDL cholesterol goal (P=0.02). Among patients on therapy and above goal, 124 of 244 (51%) patients with elevated HbA1c had their regimen increased in Year 2, compared with 85 of 282 (30%) with elevated SBP (P<0.001) and 22 of 79 (30%) with elevated LDL cholesterol (P<0.001). From Year 1 to Year 2 there was a decline in the overall proportion of patients above goal for LDL cholesterol (from 58% to 45%, P=0.002) but not for HbA1c or blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Greater initiation and intensification of pharmaceutical therapy, particularly for elevated blood pressure or cholesterol, may represent a specific opportunity to improve metabolic control in Type 2 diabetes.

The emerging role of echocardiography in the screening of patients at risk of heart failure.

P Colonna — 2007-04-09T17:10:35-00:00

Am J Cardiol, Vol. 96, No. 12A. (19 December 2005)

A large number of patients without symptoms of heart failure (HF) have asymptomatic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction owing to the compensatory mechanisms acting through the autonomic nervous system and neurohormones. In the setting of screening for prevention, one must identify the subgroup of these patients at high risk for symptomatic HF to establish appropriate therapy. As a first step to identify the subgroup of patients at high risk, clinical screening scores and natriuretic peptide measurements are used. Second, the definite diagnosis of asymptomatic LV dysfunction must be confirmed with echocardiography, occasionally with the help of new technologic developments to establish prompt, appropriate treatment to prevent disease progression. Therefore, the screening role of echocardiography is the early identification of patients with structural cardiopathy who are at risk of developing symptomatic HF and detection of those without LV dysfunction (diabetic and hypertensive) whose condition is prone to advance rapidly to structural cardiopathy or to symptomatic HF.

The Inevitability of Marketwide Underpricing of Mortgage Default Risk

Pavlov — 2006-11-16T05:15:41-00:00

Real Estate Economics, Vol. 34, No. 4. (2006), pp. 479-496.

Toward econometric models of the security risk from remote attacks

SE Schechter — 2008-03-11T12:29:51-00:00

Security & Privacy, IEEE, Vol. 3, No. 1. (2005), pp. 40-44.

Security risk models have successfully estimated the likelihood of attack for simple security threats such as burglary and auto theft. Before we can forecast the risks to computer systems, we must first learn to measure the strength of their security

Computer Security Strength & Risk: A Quantitative Approach

Stuart Schechter — 2008-03-11T12:28:30-00:00

(2004)

When attacking a software system is only as difficult as it is to obtain a vulnerability to exploit, the security strength of that system is equivalent to the market price of such a vulnerability. In this dissertation I show how security strength can be measured using market means, how these strength measures can be applied to create models that forecast the security risk facing a system, and how the power of markets can also be unleashed to increase security strength throughout the software...

Applying the fuzzy-weighted-average approach to evaluate network security systems

Ping-Teng Chang — 2008-03-11T11:57:34-00:00

Computers & Mathematics with Applications, Vol. 49, No. 11-12. (June 2005), pp. 1797-1814.

Imprecise or vague importance as well as satisfaction levels of criteria may characterize the evaluation of alternative network security systems and may be treated by the fuzzy set theory. As fuzzy numbers are adopted, the fuzzy weighted averages (FWAs) may become a suitable computation for the fuzzy criteria ratings and fuzzy weightings. In this paper, we propose to use the FWA approach that operates on the fuzzy numbers and obtains the fuzzy weighted averages during the evaluations of network security systems. The algorithm constructs a benchmark adjustment solution approach for FWA. A case study of the evaluation of network security systems is provided and demonstrates the usefulness of this study.

Information Security Risk Analysis

Thomas Peltier — 2008-03-24T15:05:00-00:00

(2005)

Processing Multi-parameter Attacktrees with Estimated Parameter Values

Aivo Jürgenson — 2008-03-03T10:59:36-00:00

Advances in Information and Computer Security (2007), pp. 308-319.

Authors extend the multi-parameter attacktree model to include inaccurate or estimated parameter values, which are modelled as probabilistic interval estimations. The paper develops mathematical tools to extend the computation rules of the attacktree model to work with interval estimations instead of point estimates. We present a sample computation routine and discuss how to interpret the analysis results and how to choose the optimal or an economically justified security level.

Information security: why the future belongs to the quants

D Geer — 2008-03-03T10:55:13-00:00

Security & Privacy, IEEE, Vol. 1, No. 4. (2003), pp. 24-32.

Although most businesses say information security is a primary concern, few have adequate systems in place because securing information requires a risk-management approach with dependable, quantifiable metrics. Simple questions, readily answered in any other business context, are met by information security experts with embarrassed silence. These questions include: Is my security better this year? What am I getting for my security dollars? How do I compare with my peers? Answering such questions requires rigorous security metrics; and a risk-management framework in which to compare them.

Rational Choice of Security Measures Via Multi-parameter Attack Trees

Ahto Buldas — 2008-03-03T10:54:07-00:00

Critical Information Infrastructures Security (2006), pp. 235-248.

We present a simple risk-analysis based method for studying the security of institutions against rational (gain-oriented) attacks. Our method uses a certain refined form of attack-trees that are used to estimate the cost and the success probability of attacks. We use elementary game theory to decide whether the system under protection is a realistic target for gain-oriented attackers. Attacks are considered unlikely if their cost is not worth their benefits for the attackers. We also show how to decide whether the investments into security are economically justified. We outline the new method and show how it can be used in practice by going through a realistic example.

Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small SCADA Control System

Miles Mcqueen — 2008-04-02T07:14:28-00:00

(2006)

Position Statement: Methodology to Support Dependable Survivable Cyber-Secure Infrastructures

FT Sheldon — 2008-03-07T10:11:23-00:00

System Sciences, 2005. HICSS '05. Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on (2005), pp. 310a-310a.

Information systems now form the backbone of nearly every government and private system. Increasingly these systems are networked together allowing for distributed operations, sharing of databases, and redundant capability. Ensuring these networks are secure, robust, and reliable is critical for the strategic and economic well being of the Nation. This paper argues in favor of a biologically inspired approach to creating survivable cyber-secure infrastructures (SCI). Our discussion employs the power transmission grid.

A Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security

Daniel Wright — 2008-03-07T10:06:15-00:00

Interfaces, Vol. 36, No. 6. (November 2006), pp. 514-529.

Bridging the gap between general management and technicians - A case study on ICT security in a developing country

Jabiri Bakari — 2008-04-01T09:33:32-00:00

Computers & Security, Vol. 26, No. 1. (February 2007), pp. 44-55.

The lack of planning, business re-engineering, and coordination in the whole process of computerisation is the most pronounced problem facing organisations. These problems often lead to a discontinuous link between technology and the business processes. As a result, the introduced technology poses some critical risks for the organisations due, in part, to different perceptions of the management and technical staffs in viewing the ICT security problem. This paper discusses a practical experience on bridging the gap between the general management and ICT technicians.

Estimating Potential IT Security Losses: An Alternative Quantitative Approach

Vincent Lee — 2008-03-12T10:04:20-00:00

Security & Privacy, IEEE, Vol. 4, No. 6. (2006), pp. 44-52.

In this article, we look at the potential relationship between the cost of IT security breaches and port-scan records - specifically, we postulate that the irregular movement of port-scan records is quite similar to stock exchange price dynamics, which have been partially satisfied with stochastic movement and Poisson arrival processing. By intuition, stochastic process methodology can emulate an enterprise's information IT security situation. Our proposed generic approach provides a reasonable procedure to estimate and evaluate IT security risk through data mining of port-scan logs

Cybersecurity Economic Issues: Clearing the Path to Good Practice

SL Pfleeger — 2008-03-12T09:54:54-00:00

Software, IEEE, Vol. 25, No. 1. (2008), pp. 35-42.

Software project managers have limited project resources. Requests for security improvements must compete with other requests, such as for new tools, more staff, or additional testing. Deciding how and whether to invest in cybersecurity protection requires knowing the answer to at least two questions: What is the likelihood of an attack, and what are its likely consequences? Security analysts understand a system's vulnerability to potential cyberattacks fairly well, but to date, research on the economic consequences of cyberattacks has been limited, dealing primarily with microanalyses of attacks' direct impacts on a particular organization. Many managers recognize the significant potential of a cyberattack's effects to cascade from one computer or business system to another, but there have been no significant efforts to develop a methodology to account for both direct and indirect costs. Without such a methodology, project managers and their organizations are hard pressed to make informed decisions about how much to invest in cybersecurity and how to ensure that security resources are used effectively. In this article, we explore how others have sought answers to our two questions. We describe the data available to inform decisions about investing in cybersecurity and look at research models of the trade-offs between investment and protection. The framework we present can help project managers find appropriate models with credible data so that they can make effective security decisions.

A Risk Assessment Model for Enterprise Network Security

Fu-Hong Yang — 2008-03-11T16:25:48-00:00

Autonomic and Trusted Computing (2006), pp. 293-301.

A formal model of security risk assessment for an enterprise information security is developed. The model, called the Graph Model, is constructed based on the mapping of an enterprise IT infrastructure and networks/systems onto a graph. Components of the model include the nodes which represent hosts in enterprise network and their weights of importance and security, the connections of the nodes, and the safeguards used with their costs and effectiveness. The model can assist to identify inappropriate, insufficient or waste protector resources like safeguards that are relative to the needs of the protected resources, and then reallocates the funds or protector resources to minimize security risk. An example is provided to represent the optimization method and process. The goal of using Graph Model is to help enterprise decision makers decide whether their security investment is consistent with the expected risks and how to allocate the funds or protector resources.

Multi-Attribute Risk Assessment

B Shawn — 2008-03-11T16:09:43-00:00

(2001)

Best practice dictates that security requirements be based on risk assessments; however, simplistic risk assessments that result in lists of risks or sets of scenarios do not provide sufficient information to prioritize requirements when faced with resource constraints (e.g., time, money). Multi-attribute risk assessments provide a convenient framework for systematically developing quantitative risk assessments that the security manager can use to prioritize security requirements. This paper...

A Novel Quantitative Analysis Method for Network Survivability

Guosheng Zhao — 2008-03-07T09:49:31-00:00

Computer and Computational Sciences, 2006. IMSCCS '06. First International Multi-Symposiums on, Vol. 2 (2006), pp. 30-33.

Through analyzing the changes of key services’ performance index value before and after evaluation, this paper proposed a novel quantitative analysis method for network survivability based on grey relational analysis. Starting with the normalization of decision matrix with interval number, the proposed method firstly applied grey relational analysis to assess the best affiliate degree and survival probability of every key service. Then, it analyzed the changes of every key service’s survivability based on network entropy difference. Finally, it obtained the synthetical analysis for the whole network survivability. Simulation experiments show the proposed method is feasible and effective in the analysis of the actual network survivability.

Security attribute evaluation method: a cost-benefit approach

Shawn Butler — 2008-03-11T15:59:34-00:00

(2002), pp. 232-240.

Multi-period model for disruptive events in interdependent systems

Edouard Kujawski — 2008-03-11T15:57:58-00:00

Systems Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 4. (2006), pp. 281-295.

This paper develops the Multi-Period Model for Disruptive Events in Interdependent Systems (MPMDEIS). The analysis is divided into two principal periods: (1) an event period that lasts for the duration of the active perturbation and results in the degradation of the interdependent systems, and (2) a recovery period during which the systems evolves to a new equilibrium. The event period perturbation is modeled as a shock that cascades among the interdependent systems and reduces their production capacity. The state of the systems at the end of the event period is specified by its operational unavailability vector, which is given by the initial perturbation strength vector multiplied by an exponential matrix with the interdependency matrix P as the exponent. The coefficients of P represent the relative contribution of the loss of capacity of one system to the loss of another system as the perturbation propagates from one to the other. The quantification of the shock and interdependencies is critical for the realistic assessment of the inflicted damage and formulating effective defensive strategies against terrorist attacks, natural hazards, and technological failures or accidents. The recovery period depends on the implemented response actions and it can be modeled using a systems dynamics approach. The standard economic input-output tables are unlikely to be appropriate for the events of interest. However, there are probabilistic risk analysis techniques such as eliciting expert opinions and analytic methods which can be used to reliably assess these data. The MPMDEIS is compared with the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) and Dynamic Input-Output Inoperability Model (DIIM) and it is demonstrated to avoid IIM and DIIM assumptions that can lead to significant errors for disruptive events in interdependent systems. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 9: 281- 295, 2006

Inoperability input-output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems

Joost Santos — 2008-03-11T15:54:39-00:00

Systems Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 1. (2006), pp. 20-34.

In this study, the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) is deployed for assessing the impacts of disruptive events on interconnected economic systems. The IIM is based on Wassily Leontief's input-output model which is capable of describing the ripple effects of disruptions to interdependent systems. Besides describing economic impact in financial terms, the