CiteULike: long's library [433 articles]

Passing the President's Program: Public Opinion and Presidential Influence in Congress

Douglas Rivers — 2007-05-15T16:18:03-00:00

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 29, No. 2. (1985), pp. 183-196.

Correlations between legislative support scores and presidential popularity do not accurately reflect the relationship between public opinion and presidential influence in Congress. Presidents make strategic choices to expend their public prestige to obtain congressional approval of programmatic initiatives. Previous studies have ignored such choices as well as other features of the strategic environment which tend to lower the apparent legislative success rates of popular presidents. A model of presidential and congressional behavior is proposed, and it is estimated that a 1 percent increase in a president's public support level increases the president's legislative approval rate by approximately 1 percent (holding program size fixed).

Why Do Some Firms Give? Why Do Some Give a Lot?: High-Tech PACs, 1977-1996

David Hart — 2007-05-15T15:39:38-00:00

The Journal of Politics, Vol. 63, No. 4. (2001), pp. 1230-1249.

This article employs Heckman selection models to explore the determinants of corporate PAC formation and PAC size and how these determinants have changed over time. While the findings suggest that high-tech firms use PACs to seek rents from government, internal organizational politics influence their behavior as well. I also find that the effect of some independent variables, including firm size, susceptibility to regulation, and R&D spending, changed significantly over the two-decade span encompassed in the data, peaking in influence in the mid-1980s. The quantitative analysis is supplemented by interview data that point to the existence of a political "arms control" process among some market competitors.

To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision

Alastair Smith — 2007-05-15T15:36:27-00:00

The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 40, No. 1. (1996), pp. 16-40.

Alliances are related to the occurrence of conflict. A theoretical model predicts how alliance reliability affects the occurrence of conflict in the international system. Suppose that two nations are at war. The intervention of a third nation into this war affects the likely outcome. Nations prefer to fight wars that they expect to win. Nations are more likely to involve themselves in wars in which they anticipate allied support. Estimates of alliance reliability are obtained and used to demonstrate that nations consider alliance reliability when deciding whether to become involved in conflict. For example, nations with unreliable allies are more likely to surrender if attacked than are nations with reliable allies. Alliance reliability affects the occurrence of war. Unfortunately, whether an alliance is honored is only observable when a war actually occurs. The author discusses the sampling bias that this creates.

The Determinants of Domestic and Foreign Corporate Political Activity

Neil Mitchell — 2007-05-15T15:33:43-00:00

The Journal of Politics, Vol. 59, No. 4. (1997), pp. 1096-1113.

Corporate political action committees (PACs) are the focus of much research on corporate political activity Political scientists, economists, and sociologists have explored the determinants of PAC formation and PAC spending by advancing and to some extent testing hypotheses concerning the size of corporations, the regulation of industries, government procurement, social connections, and corporate cultures. Progress has been made in sorting through these hypotheses, although the amount of explained variance remains relatively modest. We define the dependent variable in three ways: the decision to form a PAC, the amount to be contributed, and the number of candidates to be supported. With data largely drawn from Fortune 500 companies for the 1987-1988 election cycle, improved firm-level measures of regulation, and the inclusion of political as well as economic factors influencing corporate decision-making, we develop and provide substantial support for a politically constrained, profit-maximizing model of corporate political activity.

Campaign Contributions and Congressional Voting: A Simultaneous Probit-Tobit Model

Henry Chappell — 2007-05-15T15:33:17-00:00

The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 1. (1982), pp. 77-83.

Partisanship, Trade Policy, and Globalization: Is There a Left–Right Divide on Trade Policy?

Helen Milner — 2007-05-08T09:23:12-00:00

International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 48, No. 1. (2004), pp. 95-120.

Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

Rose Andrew — 2005-03-08T03:07:41-00:00

Open Economies Review, Vol. 16, No. 1. (January 2005), pp. 7-22.

Aggressive Multilateralism: The Determinants of GATT/WTO Dispute Initiation, 1948-1998,

Eric Reinhardt — 2007-05-08T03:19:05-00:00

ISA Confrence Precedings (1999)

The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?

Tim Buthe — 2007-05-08T03:08:16-00:00

Under Review (2007)

Credible Parties: Explaining the Intensity of Bargaining Over International Trade Disputes

Amy Widsten — 2007-05-08T02:55:01-00:00

IPSA, Confrence Paper (2003)

Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics

Matthew Shugart — 2007-05-08T02:51:26-00:00

(28 August 1992)

In recent years renewed attention has been directed to the importance of the role of institutional design in democratic politics. Particular interest has concerned constitutional design and the relative merits of parliamentary versus presidential systems. A virtual consensus has formed around the argument that parliamentary systems are preferable overall to presidential systems, due largely to the loss of power to the executive and assembly in presidential systems. In this book, the authors systematically assess the strengths and weaknesses of various forms of presidential systems, drawing on recent developments in the theoretical literature about institutional design and electoral rules. They develop a typology of democratic regimes that are structured around the separation of powers principle, including two hybrid forms, the premier-presidential and president-parliamentary systems, and they evaluate a number of alternative ways of balancing powers between the branches within these basic frameworks. They also demonstrate that electoral rules are critically important in determining how authority can be exercised within these systems, describing the range of electoral rules that can be instituted and the effects they have on the shape of party systems, on the political agenda, and on the prospects for cooperation between presidents and assemblies.

Do WTO Members Have More Liberal Trade Policy?

Andrew Rose — 2007-05-08T02:50:43-00:00

CEPR Discussion Paper 3659 (2002)

Testing International Trade Law: Empirical Studies of Gatt/WTO Dispute Settlement

Eric Reinhardt — 2007-05-08T02:46:08-00:00

Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism

Adam Przeworski — 2007-05-08T02:40:57-00:00

(01 October 1986)

Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan

Richard Neustadt — 2007-05-08T02:36:47-00:00

(01 March 1991)

Democratic Commitments

Lisa Martin — 2007-05-08T02:30:08-00:00

(17 April 2000)

From the refusal of the U.S. Congress to approve fast-track trade authority and certain foreign aid packages to the obstacles placed by Western European parliaments in the path of economic integration, legislatures often interfere with national leaders' efforts to reach and implement predictable international agreements. This seems to give an advantage to dictators, who can bluff with confidence and make decisions without consultation, and many assume that even democratic governments would do better to minimize political dissent and speak foreign policy from a single mouth. In this thoughtful, empirically grounded challenge to the assumption that messy domestic politics undermine democracies' ability to conduct international relations, Lisa Martin argues that legislatures--and particularly the apparently problematic openness of their proceedings--actually serve foreign policy well by giving credibility to the international commitments that are made.Examining the American cases of economic sanctions, the use of executive agreements versus treaties, and food assistance, in addition to the establishment of the European Union, Martin concludes that--if institutionalized--even rancorous domestic conversations between executives and legislatures augment rather than impede states' international dealings. Such interactions strengthen and legitimize states' bargaining positions and international commitments, increasing their capacity to realize international cooperation. By expanding our comprehension of how domestic politics affect international dialogue, this work is a major advance in the field of international relations and critical reading for those who study or forge foreign policy. From the refusal of the U.S. Congress to approve fast-track trade authority and certain foreign aid packages to the obstacles placed by Western European parliaments in the path of economic integration, legislatures often interfere with national leaders' efforts to reach and implement predictable international agreements. This seems to give an advantage to dictators, who can bluff with confidence and make decisions without consultation, and many assume that even democratic governments would do better to minimize political dissent and speak foreign policy from a single mouth. In this thoughtful, empirically grounded challenge to the assumption that messy domestic politics undermine democracies' ability to conduct international relations, Lisa Martin argues that legislatures--and particularly the apparently problematic openness of their proceedings--actually serve foreign policy well by giving credibility to the international commitments that are made. Examining the American cases of economic sanctions, the use of executive agreements versus treaties, and food assistance, in addition to the establishment of the European Union, Martin concludes that--if institutionalized--even rancorous domestic conversations between executives and legislatures augment rather than impede states' international dealings. Such interactions strengthen and legitimize states' bargaining positions and international commitments, increasing their capacity to realize international cooperation. By expanding our comprehension of how domestic politics affect international dialogue, this work is a major advance in the field of international relations and critical reading for those who study or forge foreign policy.

Legislative Influence and International Engagement

LL Martin — 2007-05-08T02:29:15-00:00

Liberalization and Foreign Policy (1997)

Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil

Scott Mainwaring — 2007-05-08T02:25:44-00:00

(01 April 1999)

<div>Among the many countries that underwent transitions to democracy in recent decades, only Russia is as important to the United States and the world as Brazil. The fifth-largest country and population in the world, with nearly one-half the inhabitants of Latin America, Brazil has the world’s ninth-richest economy. Given the nation’s size and influence, its capacity to achieve stable democracy and economic growth will have global impact. Understanding democracy in Brazil is therefore a crucial task, one which this book undertakes. Theoretically, the author argues that most party systems in the third wave of democratization, after 1974, have distinctive features that require us to reformulate theories about party systems generally; previous works have paid scant attention to the importance of variance in the degree of institutionalization of party systems. The author also argues that many third-wave cases underscore the need to focus on the capacity of the state and political elites to structure and restructure party systems from below. Empirically, the author studies the Brazilian party system and democratization, with particular reference to the 1979-96 period. He underscores the weakness of the party system and the resulting problems of democratization. He argues that the party system is poorly institutionalized, explores the reasons for the difficulties of party building, and addresses the consequences of weak institutionalization, which leads him to reaffirm the central significance of parties in the face of widespread skepticism about their importance. </div>

Presidentialism in Latin America

Scott Mainwaring — 2007-05-08T02:17:31-00:00

Latin American Research Review, Vol. 25 (1989), pp. 157-179.

Updating and Revisiting Old Alternatives: How new information allows for the reconsideration of previously rejected alternatives.

TL Long — 2007-05-08T02:16:19-00:00

ISA Confrence Precedings

The Perils of Presidentialism

Linz — 2007-05-08T02:12:56-00:00

Journal of Democracy (1993), pp. 108-126.

Constitutional Choices for New Democracies

Arend Lijphart — 2007-05-08T02:11:14-00:00

Journal of Democracy (1993), pp. 146-158.

Comparing Democratic Systems

DL Horowitz — 2007-05-08T02:08:18-00:00

Journal of Democracy (1993)

The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions

Stephan Haggard — 2007-05-08T02:03:41-00:00

(21 August 1995)

In the last two decades, there has been a widespread movement from authoritarian to democratic rule among developing countries, often occurring against a backdrop of severe economic crises and the adoption of market-oriented reforms. The coincidence of these events raises long-standing questions about the relationship between economic and political change. In this book, Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman explore this relationship, addressing a variety of questions: What role have economic crises played in the current wave of political liberalization and democratization? Can new democracies manage the daunting political challenges posed by economic reform? Under what economic and institutional conditions is democracy most likely to be consolidated? Drawing on contemporary political economy and the experiences of twelve Latin American and Asian countries, they develop a new approach to understanding democratic transitions.Haggard and Kaufman first analyze the relationship between economic crisis and authoritarian withdrawal and then examine how the economic and institutional legacies of authoritarian rule affect the capacity of new democratic governments to initiate and sustain economic policy reform. Finally, the authors analyze the consolidation of political and economic reform over the long run. Throughout, they emphasize the relationship between economic conditions, the interests and power of contending social groups, and the mediating role of representative institutions, particularly political parties.

WTO Dispute Settlement and the Missing Developing Country Cases: Engaging the Private Sector

Chad Bown — 2005-12-11T23:10:31-00:00

Journal of International Economic Law, Vol. 8, No. 4. (December 2005), pp. 861-890.

Developing Countries as Plaintiffs and Defendants in GATT/WTO Trade Disputes

CP Bown — 2007-05-08T01:56:38-00:00

pp. 59-80.

Developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system. A prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in GATT/WTO trade disputes. This paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the GATT/WTO dispute settlement system. We measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains, and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under WTO disputes than was the case under the GATT. We also document evidence on potential determinants of this success: the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by GATT/WTO panels. Finally, there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the WTO to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with GATT/WTO obligations.

Participation in wto Dispute Settlement: Complainants, Interested Parties, and Free Riders

Chad Bown — 2005-10-31T22:41:33-00:00

World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 19, No. 2. (2005), pp. 287-310.

Political Parties, Growth and Equality: Conservative and Social Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics)

Carles Boix — 2007-05-08T01:48:48-00:00

(13 June 1998)

This book describes the contrasting economic strategies pursued by conservative and social democratic governments. The current literature on political economy maintains that, due to the globalization of the economy and each country's institutional structures, parties hardly affect the economy. Examining all advanced countries since the 1960s, Professor Boix shows instead that partisanship and electoral politics play a fundamental role in the selection of policies to generate long-term growth and economic competitiveness. The book reinvigorates the claim that democratic arrangements matter.

The Virtues of Parlamentarism.

Juan Linz — 2007-05-08T01:40:45-00:00

Journal of Democracy (1993), pp. 138-145.

Domestic Political Accountability and the Escalation and Settlement of International Disputes

Paul Huth — 2007-04-23T15:30:05-00:00

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 6. (1 December 2002), pp. 754-790.

A political accountability model is developed to explain how the accountability of incumbent democratic leaders to domestic political opposition influences the diplomatic and military policies of governments. The model is situated within the democratic peace literature and compared with existing theoretical work. Empirically, the hypotheses are tested on a new data set of 348 territorial disputes for the period from 1919 to 1995. Each dispute is divided into three separate stages so that hypotheses about the initiation and outcome of both negotiations and military confrontations, and opposing patterns of war and dispute settlement, can be tested. Results provide strong support for a number of hypotheses concerning the importance of electoral cycles and the strength of opposition parties in explaining patterns of both conflictual and cooperative behavior by democratic states. 10.1177/002200202237928

The Politics of EU Eastern Enlargement: Evidence from a Heckman Selection Model

Thomas Plümper — 2005-01-20T00:29:54-00:00

British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 13 (2006), pp. 17-38.

The eastern enlargement of the European Union is a twofold process, in which governments of transition countries decide whether or not to apply for membership and in turn EU members decide whether or not to accept these applicants. The authors argue that the level of democracy and the extent of market reforms together determine the first decision, while the second decision is largely determined by the EU observing the reform process in applicant countries imposed by the acquis communautaire conditionality. The natural procedure to test this theory is a Heckman selection model. A Heckman specification with panel probit estimators in both stages is used. The data supports the argument that uncontested reforms signal the policy support of relevant political parties to the EUand increase the likelihood of joining the Union. The authors also test for specification errors and check the robustness of the findings.

The Determinants of Industry Political Activity, 1978-1986

Kevin Grier — 2007-04-23T15:24:07-00:00

The American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 4. (1994), pp. 911-926.

While the allocation of interest group monies to specific politicians has been extensively studied, little is known about the factors that determine of the overall level of political activity across groups. We study total contributions by corporate political action committees at the industry level. We create a large data set on industry political activity, covering 124 industries across five election cycles from 1978 to 1986 and sketch out a simple benefit-cost model to predict total corporate PAC contributions in each industry. The few previous studies of this phenomenon use relatively small samples and employ statistical techniques that are either biased or impose untested restrictions. The selectivity-corrected regression technique used here solves these problems. We find that industries with greater potential benefits from government assistance contribute systematically more but that the ability to realize these benefits is constrained by collective action problems facing firms in each industry.

Statistical Models for Political Science Event Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for the Exponential Poisson Regression Model

Gary King — 2007-03-27T19:45:16-00:00

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 32, No. 3. (1988), pp. 838-863.

This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on models for event count data. Event counts are dependent variables that measure the number of times some event occurs. Counts of international events are probably the most common, but numerous examples exist in every empirical field of the discipline. The results of the analysis below strongly suggest that the way event counts have been analyzed in hundreds of important political science studies have produced statistically and substantively unreliable results. Misspecification, inefficiency, bias, inconsistency, insufficiency, and other problems result from the unknowing application of two common methods that are without theoretical justification or empirical utility in this type of data. I show that the exponential Poisson regression (EPR) model provides analytically, in large samples, and empirically, in small, finite samples, a far superior model and optimal estimator. I also demonstrate the advantage of this methodology in an application to nineteenth-century party switching in the U.S. Congress. Its use by political scientists is strongly encouraged.

A Mixed Poisson-Inverse-Gaussian Regression Model

C Dean — 2007-03-27T19:41:47-00:00

The Canadian Journal of Statistics / La Revue Canadienne de Statistique, Vol. 17, No. 2. (1989), pp. 171-181.

The mixed Poisson-inverse-Gaussian distribution has been used by Holla, Sankaran, Sichel, and others in univariate problems involving counts. We propose a Poisson-inverse-Gaussian regression model which can be used for regression analysis of counts. The model provides an attractive framework for incorporating random effects in Poisson regression models and in handling extra-Poisson variation. Maximum-likelihood and quasilikelihood-moment estimation is investigated and illustrated with an example involving motor-insurance claims. /// Un mélange pondéré de lois de Poisson, avec des poids suivant une loi gaussienne inverse, a été utilisé par Holla, Sankaran, Sichel et d'autres comme modèle unidimensionnel dans des problèmes de dénombrement. Nous proposons un modèle de régression basé sur un tel mélange. Celui-ci peut être utilisé dans des analyses de régression faites à partir de dénombrements. Il permet d'incorporer des effets aléatoires dans un modèle de régression basé sur la loi de Poisson, ainsi que le traitement de la variation non représentée par la loi de Poisson. L'estimation par la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance et par la quasi-vraisemblance/moments est étudiée et illustrée à l'aide de données au sujet de réclamations relatives à l'assurance automobile.

The Analysis of Count Data: Overdispersion and Autocorrelation

David Barron — 2007-03-27T19:39:16-00:00

I begin this paper by describing several methods that can be used to analyze count data. Starting with relatively familiar maximum likelihood methods-Poisson and negative binomial regression-I then introduce the less well known (and less well understood) quasi-likelihood approach. This method (like negative binomial regression) allows one to model overdispersion, but it can also be generalized to deal with autocorrelation. I then investigate the small-sample properties of these estimators in the presence of overdispersion and autocorrelation by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, I apply these methods to the analysis of data on the foundings of labor unions in the U.S. Quasi-likelihood methods are found to have some advantages over Poisson and negative binomial regression, especially in the presence of autocorrelation.

Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R & D Relationship

Jerry Hausman — 2007-03-27T19:31:46-00:00

Econometrica, Vol. 52, No. 4. (1984), pp. 909-938.

This paper focuses on developing and adapting statistical models of counts (nonnegative integers) in the context of panel data and using them to analyze the relationship between patents and R & D expenditures. Since a variety of other economic data come in the form of repeated counts of some individual actions or events, the methodology should have wide applications. The statistical models we develop are applications and generalizations of Poisson distribution. Two important issues are (i) Given the panel nature of our data, how can we allow for separate persistent individual (fixed or random) effects? (ii) How does one introduce the equivalent of disturbances-in-the-equation into the analysis of Poisson and other discrete probability functions? The first problem is solved by conditioning on the total sum of outcomes over the observed years, while the second problem is solved by introducing an additional source of randomness, allowing the Poisson parameter to be itself randomly distributed, and compounding the two distributions. Lastly, we develop a test statistic for the presence of serial correlation when fixed effects estimators are used in nonlinear conditional models.

Third World Governments and Multinational Corperations: Dynamics of Host's Barganing Power

Sha Tarzi — 2007-03-06T21:32:20-00:00

International Relations, Vol. 10, No. 3. (1991), pp. 237-249.

Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows

Martin Feldstein — 2007-03-06T21:21:13-00:00

The Economci Journal, Vol. 90, No. 2. (1980), pp. 314-329.

Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review

Jeffrey Frankel — 2007-03-06T21:14:29-00:00

The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 2. (1992), pp. 197-202.

Reversal of Fortunes: Democratic Institutions and foreign drect Investment Inglows to Developing Countries

Quan Li — 2007-03-06T21:03:58-00:00

International Orgainzation, Vol. 57, No. 1. (2003), pp. 175-211.

Democratic Governance and Multinational Corperations: Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign direct Investment

Nathan Jensen — 2007-03-06T20:34:27-00:00

International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 3. (2003), pp. 587-616.

Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation?

George Downs — 2007-03-06T20:28:34-00:00

International Organization, Vol. 50, No. 3. (1996), pp. 379-406.

Recent research on compliance in international regulatory regimes has argued (1) that compliance is generally quite good; (2) that this high level of compliance has been achieved with little attention to enforcement; (3) that those compliance problems that do exist are best addressed as management rather than enforcement problems; and (4) that the management rather than the enforcement approach holds the key to the evolution of future regulatory cooperation in the international system. While the descriptive findings above are largely correct, the policy inferences are dangerously contaminated by endogeneity and selection problems. A high rate of compliance is often the result of states formulating treaties that require them to do little more than they would do in the absence of a treaty. In those cases where noncompliance does occur and where the effects of selection are attenuated, both self-interest and enforcement play significant roles.

Polish President Pledges to Help Ukraine Join EU

Nedeli Zerkalo — 2007-02-28T03:19:31-00:00

BBC (2005)

Just And Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument With Historical Illustrations

Michael Walzer — 2007-02-28T03:11:06-00:00

(30 August 2006)

This classic work of political ethics has radically reconfigured the way that we think about war. From the Athenian attack on Melos to the My Lai Massacre, from the wars in the Balkans through the first war in Iraq, Michael Walzer examines the moral issues surrounding military theory, war crimes, and the spoils of war. He studies a variety of conflicts over the course of history, as well as the testimony of those who have been most directly involved--participants, decision makers, and victims. In his introduction to this new edition, Walzer specifically addresses the moral issues surrounding the war in and occupation of Iraq, reminding us once again that "the argument about war and justice is still a political and moral necessity."

Theory of International Politics (Addison-Wesley series in political science)

Kenneth Waltz — 2007-02-28T03:08:30-00:00

(19 July 1979)

The Transfer of Trust: Ethnicities and Economic Institutions in the Livestock Trade in West and East Africa

Paul van Ufflord — 2007-02-27T21:55:18-00:00

Africa, Vol. 74, No. 2. (2004), pp. 121-145.

Stata Statistical Software: Release 9

Statacorp — 2007-02-27T21:31:56-00:00

(2005)

Untitled

Dina Spechler — 2007-02-27T21:30:32-00:00

(1990), pp. 281-304.

From the USSR to Postcomunist Russia.

Richard Sakwa — 2007-02-27T21:26:55-00:00

(1998)

Russian Politics and Society

Richard Sakwa — 2007-02-27T21:24:24-00:00

(13 May 2002)

Richard Sakwa's Russian Politics and Society is the most comprehensive study of Russia's post-communist political development. It has, since its first publication in 1993, become an indispensable guide for all those who need to know about the current political scene in Russia, about the country's political stability and about the future of democracy under its post-communist leadership. The third edition, has been updated throughout to include details of Yeltsin's second term and the impact on Russian politics of the rise of his successor, Vladimir Putin. It also contains a substantially expanded bibliography, and appendices showing election results, chronology, social and demographic figures and recent census data.