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Share Price Movements in the Post-Credit-Crunch environment TeX Export

(15 Jun 2009)

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The market events of 2007-2008 have reinvigorated the search for realistic share price models that capture greater likelihoods of extreme movements. In this paper we model the medium-term log-return dynamics in a market containing both fundamental and technical traders. This is done in a simple way based on a Poisson trade arrival model with variable size orders. With simplifying assumptions we are led to a novel SDE mixing arithmetical and geometric Brownian motions. Various dynamics and equilibria are possible depending on the balance of trades. Under mean-reverting circumstances we arrive naturally at an equilibrium fat-tailed return distribution with a Pearson Type IV form. Under less restrictive assumptions still richer dynamics are possible. One special case leads to a natural hyperbolic variation of the OU SDE. The phenomenon of variance explosion is identified that gives rise to much larger price movements that might have a priori been expected, so that “$25σ$” events can become more commonplace. We exhibit a solution of the Fokker-Planck equation for a special case that shows how such variance explosion can hide beneath a standard Gaussian facade. This is one member of an extended class of “inverse-hyperbolic-normal” distributions with a rich and varied structure, capable of describing a wide range of market behaviours. The Laplace transform of a large sub-class can be given in closed form in terms of Legendre functions, and some further special cases of time-dependent distributions are given. An example of the computation of a hyperbolic VaR is given.


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