From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action

Scenarios are not an end in themselves. They are a management tool used to improve the quality of executive decision making. However, experience shows that using scenarios in this way proves more difficult than developing them. This article examines the causes of this implementation problem and suggests ways of overcoming the cultural bias toward single-point forecasting. Starting with a clear-cut decision focus for the scenarios, the author develops a primer or step-by-step methodology for moving from scenarios to strategy, outlining four different approaches. He suggests that only after a great deal of practice will managers be able to move from this elementary approach to a more intuitive and insightful use of scenarios as a guide to strategy.