CORRELATIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLES OF CREDIT RISK: EVIDENCE FROM BANKRUPTCIES IN GERMANY Export

@article{citeulike:2653892, abstract = {A major topic in empirical finance is correlation of default risk. Correlations are the main drivers for credit risk on a portfolio basis and for banks' capital requirements under the New Basel Accord. However, empirical evidence on the magnitude of correlations is rather scarce, mainly due to data limitations. Using a large database of bankruptcies in Germany we estimate correlations using a simple version of the Basel II factor model. Then we extend the model to an approach with observable risk factors and suggest that this model with default probabilities depending on the state of the economy may be more adequate. Empirical evidence on proxies for the credit cycles is presented for German industry sectors. We find that much of the co-movements can be explained by our variables. Finally, we discuss some implications for forecasts of distributions of potential future defaults of a bank's portfolio.}, author = {R\"{o}sch, Daniel}, citeulike-article-id = {2653892}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.fmpm.ch/}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.fmpm.ch/docs/detail.php?id=440}, journal = {FINANCIAL MARKETS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT}, keywords = {bankruptcy, basel, consumer, credit, germany, risk}, number = {3}, pages = {309--331}, posted-at = {2008-04-11 14:07:19}, priority = {0}, title = {CORRELATIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLES OF CREDIT RISK: EVIDENCE FROM BANKRUPTCIES IN GERMANY}, url = {http://www.fmpm.ch/}, volume = {17} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:2653892 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2653892 N2 - A major topic in empirical finance is correlation of default risk. Correlations are the main drivers for credit risk on a portfolio basis and for banks' capital requirements under the New Basel Accord. However, empirical evidence on the magnitude of correlations is rather scarce, mainly due to data limitations. Using a large database of bankruptcies in Germany we estimate correlations using a simple version of the Basel II factor model. Then we extend the model to an approach with observable risk factors and suggest that this model with default probabilities depending on the state of the economy may be more adequate. Empirical evidence on proxies for the credit cycles is presented for German industry sectors. We find that much of the co-movements can be explained by our variables. Finally, we discuss some implications for forecasts of distributions of potential future defaults of a bank's portfolio. IS - 3 JF - FINANCIAL MARKETS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT EP - 331 TI - CORRELATIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLES OF CREDIT RISK: EVIDENCE FROM BANKRUPTCIES IN GERMANY VL - 17 SP - 309 KW - bankruptcy KW - basel KW - consumer KW - credit KW - germany KW - risk AU - Rösch, Daniel UR - http://www.fmpm.ch/ ER -