Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?
We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. âº We study the properties of forecasts of metal prices. âº Forecasts cover nine metal prices, four forecast horizons, and 15 years of data. âº We find strong evidence of forecaster anti-herding.