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Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration Export

Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 25, No. 5. (August 2006), pp. 719-740.

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econometrics fx garch

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We introduce a new concept of impulse response functions tracing the effects of independent shocks on volatility through time while avoiding typical orthogonalization and ordering problems. In an empirical study of a bivariate foreign exchange (FX) rate series we use volatility impulse response functions to discuss the effects of central bank decisions such as direct interventions in the FX-market or open market activities on FX market volatility. Comparing our concept with conditional moment profiles introduced by Gallant et al. [Gallant, A.R., Rossi, P.E., Tauchen, G., 1993. Nonlinear dynamic structures. Econometrica 61, 871-907], we show that for shocks affecting FX rates in an asymmetric way, the difference between the two methodologies and their interpretation can be substantial.


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