Proliferation and the Probability of War: A Cardinality Theorem Export

@article{citeulike:5836542, abstract = {To determine formally the effects of nuclear proliferation on the probability of a deliberate nuclear war requires more than just qualitative assertions about the change in the probability that an individual nation will initiate a deliberate nuclear war as the number of nuclear powers increases. For a model to predict that an increase in the number of nuclear powers will increase or decrease the probability of a deliberate nuclear war, it is necessary that it be able to predict the cardinality of the change in the probability that any one nation will initiate a nuclear war. Inasmuch as this is beyond the capability of most models in economics and political science, the formal debate on this issue should be viewed with caution. It is likely that the dominant factor when considering the effect of proliferation on the probability of a nuclear war is that it will occur as a result of an accident or other inadvertent behavior. 10.1177/0022002796040001009}, author = {Brito, Dagobert L. and Intriligator, Michael D.}, citeulike-article-id = {5836542}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002796040001009}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/40/1/206.abstract}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/40/1/206.full.pdf}, day = {1}, doi = {10.1177/0022002796040001009}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, keywords = {equilibrium-models, global-justice-infrastructures, nonequilibrium-models, peace, peace-technologies, proliferation, risk-reduction, risks, stability, survivability, war, weapons, wmd, world-models, world-orders}, month = {March}, number = {1}, pages = {206--214}, posted-at = {2009-09-24 21:51:27}, priority = {2}, title = {Proliferation and the Probability of War: A Cardinality Theorem}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002796040001009}, volume = {40}, year = {1996} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:5836542 L3 - citeulike-article-id:5836542 N2 - To determine formally the effects of nuclear proliferation on the probability of a deliberate nuclear war requires more than just qualitative assertions about the change in the probability that an individual nation will initiate a deliberate nuclear war as the number of nuclear powers increases. For a model to predict that an increase in the number of nuclear powers will increase or decrease the probability of a deliberate nuclear war, it is necessary that it be able to predict the cardinality of the change in the probability that any one nation will initiate a nuclear war. Inasmuch as this is beyond the capability of most models in economics and political science, the formal debate on this issue should be viewed with caution. It is likely that the dominant factor when considering the effect of proliferation on the probability of a nuclear war is that it will occur as a result of an accident or other inadvertent behavior. 10.1177/0022002796040001009 IS - 1 JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution EP - 214 TI - Proliferation and the Probability of War: A Cardinality Theorem VL - 40 SP - 206 KW - equilibrium-models KW - global-justice-infrastructures KW - nonequilibrium-models KW - peace KW - peace-technologies KW - proliferation KW - risk-reduction KW - risks KW - stability KW - survivability KW - war KW - weapons KW - wmd KW - world-models KW - world-orders AU - Brito, Dagobert AU - Intriligator, Michael PY - 1996/03/01/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002796040001009 ER -