Estimation of Task Persistence Parameters from Pervasive Medical Systems with Censored Data

This paper compares two statistical models of location within a smart flat during the day. The location is then identified with a task executed normally or repeated pathologically, e.g., in case of Alzheimer disease (AD), whereas a task persistence parameter assesses tendency to perseverate. Compared with a Pólya's urns derived approach, the Markovian one is more effective and offers up to 98 percent of good prediction using only the last known location but distinguishing days of week. To extend these results to a multisensor context, some difficulties must be overcome. An external knowledge is made from a set of observable random variables provided by body sensors and organized either in a Bayesian network or in a reference knowledge base system (KBS) containing the person's actimetric profile. When data missed or errors occurred, an estimate of the joint probabilities of these random variables and hence the probability of all events appearing in the network or the KBS was developed and corrects the bias of the Lancaster and Zentgraf classical approach which in certain circumstances provides negative estimates. Finally, we introduce a correction corresponding to a possible loss of the person's synchronization with the nycthemeral (day versus night) zeitgebers (synchronizers) to avoid false alarms.