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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 364, No. 1845. (15 August 2006), pp. 2055-2072, doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1813 Key: citeulike:12070611
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Earth's largest calderas form as the ground collapses during immense volcanic eruptions, when hundreds to thousands of cubic kilometres of magma are explosively withdrawn from the Earth's crust over a period of days to weeks. Continuing long after such great eruptions, the resulting calderas often exhibit pronounced unrest, with frequent earthquakes, alternating uplift and subsidence of the ground, and considerable heat and mass flux. Because many active and extinct calderas show evidence for repetition of large eruptions, such systems demand detailed scientific study and monitoring. Two calderas in North America, Yellowstone (Wyoming) and Long Valley (California), are in areas of youthful tectonic complexity. Scientists strive to understand the signals generated when tectonic, volcanic and hydrothermal (hot ground water) processes intersect. One obstacle to accurate forecasting of large volcanic events is humanity's lack of familiarity with the signals leading up to the largest class of volcanic eruptions. Accordingly, it may be difficult to recognize the difference between smaller and larger eruptions. To prepare ourselves and society, scientists must scrutinize a spectrum of volcanic signals and assess the many factors contributing to unrest and toward diverse modes of eruption.
Lowenstern, J. B., Smith, R. B. & Hill, D.P. 2006. Monitoring Super-volcanoes: Geophysical and Geochemical Signals at Yellowstone and other Large Caldera Systems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364, (1845), 2055-2072.
This article address regional and global vulnerability to volcanic activity and the need for monitoring caldera systems that have produced volcanic occurrences and the need to accurately record events and changes within those systems prior to the event.
The authors, using Yellowstone as the primary model and referencing documented post-caldera formation systems, along with current understanding of magma chambers and the caldera system suggest ways to infer from sporadic events (steam eruptions, ground tremors) could lead to a new volcanic event. Lowenstern et el (2006), also go on to define a super-volcanic event as one that explosively evacuates from a subsurface chamber at least 300km^3 of magma, and deposit on the countryside pyroclastic material (ash, pumice and rock fragments). Meaning any volcanic system that had produced this type of super-eruption became classified as a super-volcano. They go into the magma mix composition (liquidity, crystal formation of rhyeolites, temperature, gas bubble formation and pressure) necessary to produce a rapid highly explosive large volume volcanic eruption.
The authors also limit the geographic locations to those with a specific composition of silicate to produce such an eruption; the Pacific Rim Countries, United States, Central America and the Andes of South America. They address the seismic activity of their model, Yellowstone (up to 3000 detectable earthquakes a year), the hydrothermal activity and the correlation of geophysical and geochemical (steam/SO2/CO2 emissions) signals as possible indicators an eruption and possibly a super-eruption is on the horizon. That said they conclude that over the years scientist have had some success in predicting small eruptions based on indicators, but there still remains large gaps in their knowledge of predicting the likely hood of the next eruption let alone will it be on the magnitude of a super-eruption.
I do plan on using this article as source of information on the possible indicators that an eruption could be eminent. I also think it would be useful in noting how the seismic activity and hydrothermal activity of the area are both indicators and release valves for the temperature and pressure build up with in the Yellowstone-Snake River Caldera system.- Tracey Beyer
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