The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition

@article{Makridakis_1982, abstract = {In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.}, address = {INSEAD, 77305 Fontainebleau, France; A. Andersen, Department of Economic Statistics, The University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia; R. Carbone, Facult\'{e} des Sciences de l'Administration, Universit\'{e} Laval, Quebec, Canada G1K 7P4; R. Fildes, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, England; R. Lewandowski, Marketing Systems GMBH, Postfach 230109, Hunsruckstra{\ss}e 9a, D-4300 ESSEN 1 (Bredeney), West Germany; J. Newton and E. Parzen, Institute of Statistics, Texas A\&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, U.S.A.; R. Winkler, Indiana University, Graduate School of Business, Bloomington, IN 47405, U.S.A.}, author = {Makridakis, S. and Andersen, A. and Carbone, R. and Fildes, R. and Hibon, M. and Lewandowski, R. and Newton, J. and Parzen, E. and Winkler, R. }, citeulike-article-id = {3001393}, doi = {10.1002/for.3980010202}, journal = {Journal of Forecasting}, keywords = {forecasting}, number = {2}, pages = {111--153}, posted-at = {2008-07-15 08:52:47}, priority = {1}, title = {The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010202}, volume = {1}, year = {1982} }

TY - JOUR ID - Makridakis_1982 L3 - citeulike-article-id:3001393 TI - The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition JF - Journal of Forecasting VL - 1 IS - 2 SP - 111 EP - 153 AD - INSEAD, 77305 Fontainebleau, France; A. Andersen, Department of Economic Statistics, The University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia; R. Carbone, Faculté des Sciences de l'Administration, Université Laval, Quebec, Canada G1K 7P4; R. Fildes, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, England; R. Lewandowski, Marketing Systems GMBH, Postfach 230109, Hunsruckstraße 9a, D-4300 ESSEN 1 (Bredeney), West Germany; J. Newton and E. Parzen, Institute of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, U.S.A.; R. Winkler, Indiana University, Graduate School of Business, Bloomington, IN 47405, U.S.A. N2 - In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition. KW - forecasting AU - Makridakis, S AU - Andersen, A AU - Carbone, R AU - Fildes, R AU - Hibon, M AU - Lewandowski, R AU - Newton, J AU - Parzen, E AU - Winkler, R PY - 1982/// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010202 ER -