Network structural dynamics and infectious disease propagation
We aimed to relate dynamic changes in risk-network (sex and/or injecting drug) structure to observe STD/HIV transmission. We analysed macroand micro-structural elements in 2 heterosexual networks, augmented by ethnographic observations. In a Colorado cohort of injecting drug users (n=595), measures of subgroup formation and of density of activity show decrease of network cohesion over time; only one HIV transmission was observed in 3 years. In a group of adolescent heterosexuals in Georgia (n=99), the reverse process (increase in structural cohesion) was associated with efficient syphilis transmission: 10 cases were observed. Changes in personal risk behaviours over time were modest. STD/HIV transmission patterns were associated with intensification or diminution of network cohesion. Network and ethnographic data suggest that enhanced connectivity facilitates transmission while segmentation impedes it, suggesting opportunities for interventions. These data also emphasize the need to re-evaluate purely behavioural explanations of STD/HIV transmission.