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The logic of plausible reasoning: A core theory Export

Cognitive Science, Vol. 13, No. 1. (1989), pp. 1-49.

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The paper presents a core theory of human plausible reasoning based on analysis of people's answers to everyday questions about the world. The theory consists of three parts: 1. a formal representation of plausible inference patterns; such as deductions, inductions, and analogies, that are frequently employed in answering everyday questions; 2. a set of parameters, such as conditional likelihood, typicality, and similarity, that affect the certainty of people's answers to such questions; and 3. a system relating the different plausible inference patterns and the different certainty parameters. This is one of the first attempts to construct a formal theory that addresses both the semantic and parametric aspects of the kind of everyday reasoning that pervades. all of human discourse.


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