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VIII–Epistemic Deference: The Case of Chance Export

Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Vol. 107, No. 1pt2. (2007), pp. 187-206.

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Epistemic deference is the phenomenon in which one person uses the deliverances of some information source, perhaps the opinions of another person, as a model for what to believe. The paper aims to clarify the nature of epistemic deference in probabilistic contexts, to explain the conditions under which deference is appropriate, and to examine deference to objective chances, as epitomized in David Lewis's Principal Principle. This latter analysis will show, in contrast with views that portray chance as an ideal inductive logician with total recall, that our deference to chance is grounded in contingent limitations on our ability to access information and our recognition that the physical probabilities that instantiate the actual chances codify all the types of information that humans are able to possess.


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