First-click behavior describes one of the most commonly occurring tasks on the Web, where a user submits a query to a search engine, examines a list of results and chooses a link to follow. Even though this task is carried out a billion times a day, our understanding of the factors influencing this behavior is poorly developed. In this paper, we empirically evaluate information scent predictions for first-click behavior in the use of a personalized search engine, called I-SPY. Our experiments show that the predictive accuracy of current information foraging approaches is not good. To conclude, we advance a framework designed to understand first-click behavior and guide future research.