Extinction risk from climate change Export

@article{citeulike:165308, abstract = {Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20\% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37\% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'.When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18\%) than mid-range (,24\%) and maximumchange (,35\%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.}, author = {Thomas, Chris D. and Cameron, Alison and Green, Rhys E. and Bakkenes, Michel and Beaumont, Linda J. and Collingham, Yvonne C. and Erasmus, Barend F. and de Siqueira, Marinez F. and Grainger, Alan and Hannah, Lee and Hughes, Lesley and Huntley, Brian and van Jaarsveld, Albert S. and Midgley, Guy F. and Miles, Lera and Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A. and Townsend and Phillips, Oliver L. and Williams, Stephen E.}, citeulike-article-id = {165308}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02121}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02121}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14712274}, citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=14712274}, doi = {10.1038/nature02121}, journal = {Nature}, keywords = {climate-change, extinction}, month = {January}, number = {6970}, pages = {145--148}, posted-at = {2008-08-28 08:10:06}, priority = {2}, title = {Extinction risk from climate change}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02121}, volume = {427}, year = {2004} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:165308 L3 - citeulike-article-id:165308 N2 - Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’.When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximumchange (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration. IS - 6970 JF - Nature EP - 148 TI - Extinction risk from climate change VL - 427 SP - 145 KW - climate-change KW - extinction AU - Thomas, Chris AU - Cameron, Alison AU - Green, Rhys AU - Bakkenes, Michel AU - Beaumont, Linda AU - Collingham, Yvonne AU - Erasmus, Barend AU - de Siqueira, Marinez AU - Grainger, Alan AU - Hannah, Lee AU - Hughes, Lesley AU - Huntley, Brian AU - van Jaarsveld, Albert AU - Midgley, Guy AU - Miles, Lera AU - Ortega-Huerta, Miguel AU - Townsend AU - Phillips, Oliver AU - Williams, Stephen PY - 2004/01// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02121 ER -