Is the Time Series Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects Contaminated by Publication Bias?

Existing meta-analysis approaches to testing for publication bias are problematic when applied to time-series studies in economics, because changes in parameters can generate spurious evidence of publication bias. We suggest an alternative test in such contexts, and apply it to time-series studies of the effects of minimum wages on employment. In contrast to recent research by Card and Krueger [1995a], we find that the results of published time-series studies of minimum wage effects are consistent with structural change, and that the null hypothesis of no publication bias is not rejected by the evidence. (JEL B41, C22, C40, J23)