Exciting chaos with noise: unexpected dynamics in epidemic outbreaks Export

@article{citeulike:2758249, abstract = {Abstract.\ \  In this paper, we identify a mechanism for chaos in the presence of noise. In a study of the SEIR model, which predicts epidemic outbreaks in childhood diseases, we show how chaotic dynamics can be attained by adding stochastic perturbations at parameters where chaos does not exist apriori. Data recordings of epidemics in childhood diseases are still argued as deterministic chaos. There also exists noise due to uncertainties in the contact parameters between those who are susceptible and those who are infected, as well as random fluctuations in the population. Although chaos has been found in deterministic models, it only occurs in parameter regions that require a very large population base or other large seasonal forcing. Our work identifies the mechanism whereby chaos can be induced by noise for realistic parameter regions of the deterministic model where it does not naturally occur.}, author = {Billings, L. and Schwartz, I. B.}, citeulike-article-id = {2758249}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s002850100110}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.springerlink.com/content/39mj1uu4gg4cd2ku}, day = {15}, doi = {10.1007/s002850100110}, journal = {Journal of Mathematical Biology}, keywords = {chaos, epidemic\_modeling}, month = {January}, number = {1}, pages = {31--48}, posted-at = {2008-05-05 16:28:16}, priority = {2}, title = {Exciting chaos with noise: unexpected dynamics in epidemic outbreaks}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s002850100110}, volume = {44}, year = {2002} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:2758249 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2758249 N2 - Abstract.   In this paper, we identify a mechanism for chaos in the presence of noise. In a study of the SEIR model, which predicts epidemic outbreaks in childhood diseases, we show how chaotic dynamics can be attained by adding stochastic perturbations at parameters where chaos does not exist apriori. Data recordings of epidemics in childhood diseases are still argued as deterministic chaos. There also exists noise due to uncertainties in the contact parameters between those who are susceptible and those who are infected, as well as random fluctuations in the population. Although chaos has been found in deterministic models, it only occurs in parameter regions that require a very large population base or other large seasonal forcing. Our work identifies the mechanism whereby chaos can be induced by noise for realistic parameter regions of the deterministic model where it does not naturally occur. IS - 1 JF - Journal of Mathematical Biology EP - 48 TI - Exciting chaos with noise: unexpected dynamics in epidemic outbreaks VL - 44 SP - 31 KW - chaos KW - epidemic_modeling AU - Billings, L AU - Schwartz, IB PY - 2002/01/15/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s002850100110 ER -