The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model Export

@article{citeulike:1574717, abstract = {This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on private GDP, inflation and the long-term interest rate in Italy using a structural Vector Autoregression model. To this end, a database of quarterly cash data for selected fiscal variables for the period 1982:1-2004:4 is constructed, largely relying on the information contained in the Italian Treasury Quarterly Reports. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. A shock to government purchases of goods and services has a sizeable and robust effect on economic activity: an exogenous 1\% (in terms of private GDP) shock increases private real GDP by 0.6\% after 3 quarters. The response goes to zero after two years, reflecting with a lag the low persistence of the shock. The effects on employment, private consumption and investment are also positive. The response of inflation is positive but small and short-lived. In contrast, public wages, which in many studies are lumped together with purchases, have no significant effect on output, while the effects on employment turn negative after two quarters. Shocks to net revenue have negligible effects on all the variables.}, author = {Giordano, Raffaela and Momigliano, Sandro and Neri, Stefano and Perotti, Roberto}, citeulike-article-id = {1574717}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.10.005}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V97-4MV1NS8-1/2/43f448752706b35f56f667616243820d}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.10.005}, journal = {European Journal of Political Economy}, keywords = {fiscal\_policy, macroeconomics, var}, month = {September}, number = {3}, pages = {707--733}, posted-at = {2007-08-19 05:46:13}, priority = {2}, title = {The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.10.005}, volume = {23}, year = {2007} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:1574717 L3 - citeulike-article-id:1574717 N2 - This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on private GDP, inflation and the long-term interest rate in Italy using a structural Vector Autoregression model. To this end, a database of quarterly cash data for selected fiscal variables for the period 1982:1-2004:4 is constructed, largely relying on the information contained in the Italian Treasury Quarterly Reports. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. A shock to government purchases of goods and services has a sizeable and robust effect on economic activity: an exogenous 1% (in terms of private GDP) shock increases private real GDP by 0.6% after 3 quarters. The response goes to zero after two years, reflecting with a lag the low persistence of the shock. The effects on employment, private consumption and investment are also positive. The response of inflation is positive but small and short-lived. In contrast, public wages, which in many studies are lumped together with purchases, have no significant effect on output, while the effects on employment turn negative after two quarters. Shocks to net revenue have negligible effects on all the variables. IS - 3 JF - European Journal of Political Economy EP - 733 TI - The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model VL - 23 SP - 707 KW - fiscal_policy KW - macroeconomics KW - var AU - Giordano, Raffaela AU - Momigliano, Sandro AU - Neri, Stefano AU - Perotti, Roberto PY - 2007/09// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.10.005 ER -