Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Export

@article{citeulike:1747893, abstract = {The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control.}, address = {Consortium for Conservation Medicine, New York, NY 10001, USA. kilpatrick@conservationmedicine.org}, author = {Kilpatrick, A. M. and Chmura, A. A. and Gibbons, D. W. and Fleischer, R. C. and Marra, P. P. and Daszak, P.}, citeulike-article-id = {1747893}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0609227103}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/103/51/19368.abstract}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/103/51/19368.full.pdf}, citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17158217}, citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=17158217}, day = {19}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0609227103}, issn = {0027-8424}, journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A}, keywords = {avianflu, epidemic, health, modeling}, month = {December}, number = {51}, pages = {19368--19373}, posted-at = {2007-10-17 19:51:58}, priority = {3}, title = {Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza.}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0609227103}, volume = {103}, year = {2006} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:1747893 L3 - citeulike-article-id:1747893 N2 - The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control. IS - 51 JF - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A SN - 0027-8424 AD - Consortium for Conservation Medicine, New York, NY 10001, USA. kilpatrick@conservationmedicine.org EP - 19373 TI - Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. VL - 103 SP - 19368 KW - avianflu KW - epidemic KW - health KW - modeling AU - Kilpatrick, AM AU - Chmura, AA AU - Gibbons, DW AU - Fleischer, RC AU - Marra, PP AU - Daszak, P PY - 2006/12/19/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0609227103 ER -