Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation?

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability in the climate system. Observations suggest that warming in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans in recent decades may have contributed to increased trends in the annual number of MJO events. A stochastic model is used to project changes in MJO activity under a global warming scenario. The mean number of events per year may rise from ∼3.9 (1948–2008) to ∼5.7 (2049–2099) and the probability of very active years (5 or more events) may significantly increase from 0.51 ± 0.01 (1990–2008) to 0.75 ± 0.01 (2010–2027) and 0.92 ± 0.01 (2094–2099). Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society