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From Association to Causation in Observational Studies: The Role of Tests of Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment Export

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 79, No. 385. (1984), pp. 41-48.

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causality observational_studies randomization_inference statistics

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If treatment assignment is strongly ignorable, then adjustment for observed covariates is sufficient to produce consistent estimates of treatment effects in observational studies. A general approach to testing this critical assumption is developed and applied to a study of the effects of nuclear fallout on the risk of childhood leukemia. R.A. Fisher's advice on the interpretation of observational studies was "Make your theories elaborate"; formally, make causal theories sufficiently detailed that, under the theory, strongly ignorable assignment has testable consequences.


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