Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem Export

@article{329, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean-type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long-term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub-dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff.}, author = {Mouillot, F. and Rambal, S. and Joffre, R.}, citeulike-article-id = {2850544}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {#}, comment = {May ---=note-separator=--- Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem ---=note-separator=--- ISI:000175426300002 ---=note-separator=--- Cited Reference Count: 107 Cited References: *EUR CLIM SUPP NET, 1995, CLIM EUR RENC VAR PR ACEVEDO MF, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V87, P267 ARIANOUTSOUFARA.M, 1984, ACTA OECOL-OEC PLANT, V5, P387 ARMAND D, 1993, ANN SCI FOREST, V50, P79 BETTARINI I, 1995, TREE PHYSIOL, V15, P327 BOUGHTON WC, 1989, AUST J SOIL RES, V27, P511 BROCHET P, 1974, MONOGRAPHIE METEOROL, V65 BRUBAKER LB, 1986, VEGETATIO, V67, P119 CALLAWAY RM, 1993, ECOLOGY, V74, P1567 CAMPBELL GS, 1974, SOIL SCI, V117, P311 CASTELL C, 1994, ANN BOT-LONDON, V73, P595 CASTELL C, 1994, OECOLOGIA, V98, P201 CASTELL C, 1995, TREE PHYSIOL, V15, P405 CEULEMANS R, 1994, NEW PHYTOL, V127, P425 CLAPP RB, 1978, WATER RESOUR RES, V14, P601 CORREIA OA, 1994, ACTA OECOL, V15, P289 DAVIS FW, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE MEDITE, P435 DELILLIS M, 1992, VEGETATIO, V99, P83 EAGLESON PS, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P325 EAMUS D, 1989, ADV ECOL RES, V19, P1 ESCUDERO A, 1992, OECOLOGIA, V90, P80 FARQUHAR GD, 1989, STABLE ISOTOPES ECOL, P21 FEDDES RA, 1978, SIMULATION MONOGRAPH FERRANDO JM, 1986, METHODE EVALUATION P FLECK I, 1995, ACTA OECOL, V16, P55 FRIEND AD, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V95, P249 FULTON MR, 1991, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V42, P23 GORDON HB, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P83 GREGORY JM, 1995, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V121, P1451 GUEHL JM, 1994, TREE PHYSIOL, V14, P707 GUILLEN DF, 1994, J VEG SCI, V5, P497 HARLEY PC, 1995, ECOL STU AN, V117, P35 HARRISON EA, 1990, VEGETATIO, V86, P1 HATTON TJ, 1997, FUNCT ECOL, V11, P665 JARVIS AJ, 1999, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V22, P639 KEELEY JE, 1981, WO26 USDA FOR SERV KITZBERGER T, 2001, IN PRESS GLOBAL ECOL KUMMEROW J, 1977, OECOLOGIA, V29, P163 LANSAC AR, 1994, VEGETATIO, V113, P141 LAVOREL S, 1998, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V7, P157 LEHOUEROU HN, 1984, J ARID ENVIRON, V7, P213 LLORET F, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P417 LOPEZSORIA L, 1992, OECOLOGIA, V91, P493 LOUSTAU D, 1996, OECOLOGIA, V107, P33 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1978, INTERACTIVE FORECAST MARTIN P, 1992, AUST J BOT, V40, P717 MARTINEZSANCHEZ JJ, 1996, ECOLOGIA MEDITERRANE, V23, P17 MAUCHAMP A, 1994, ECOL MODEL, V71, P107 MCKENNEY MS, 1993, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V64, P81 MCMURTRIE R, 1983, ANN BOT-LONDON, V52, P437 MESLEARD F, 1991, J VEG SCI, V2, P155 MESLEARD F, 1989, OECOLOGIA, V80, P127 MILLER C, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P202 MILLER C, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V114, P113 MILLER C, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P145 MILLER PC, 1983, OECOLOGIA, V56, P385 MORENO JM, 1996, AVANCES FITOSOCIOLOG, P23 MORENO JM, 1998, LARGE FOREST FIRES, P159 MOUILLOT F, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V147, P75 MOUILLOT F, 1998, FOREST FIRE RES, V2, P2533 MOUILLOT F, 2002, UNPUB J VEGETATION S NUNEZOLIVERA E, 1995, VEGETATIO, V117, P123 OECHEL WC, 1995, ECOL STU AN, V117, P58 OSBORNE CP, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P445 OVERPECK JT, 1990, NATURE, V343, P51 PACALA SW, 1993, CAN J FOREST RES, V23, P1980 PAPIO C, 1990, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V35, P249 PARASKEVOPOULOS SP, 1994, VEGETATIO, V115, P109 PATON D, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V38, P221 PENUELAS J, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V109, P69 PEREIRA JMC, 1995, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V5, P35 PICON C, 1996, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V19, P182 PINOL J, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P345 PITTOCK AB, 1991, INT HYDR WAT RES S I, P182 PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 RAMBAL S, 1995, ECOL STU AN, V117, P386 RAMBAL S, 1985, INT J REMOTE SENS, V6, P1475 RAMBAL S, 1998, LARGE FOREST FIRES, P187 RAMBAL S, 1993, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V16, P35 RAMBAL S, 2001, TERRESTRIAL GLOBAL P, P315 REYES O, 1998, ANN SCI FOREST, V55, P837 RHIZOPOULOU S, 1991, J EXP BOT, V42, P627 RIBA M, 1998, ACTA OECOL, V19, P9 RITCHIE JT, 1972, WATER RESOUR RES, V8, P1204 ROY J, 1992, J APPL ECOL, V29, P647 RUNNING SW, 1991, TREE PHYSIOL, V9, P147 SHUGART HH, 1980, BIOSCIENCE, V30, P308 STANHILL G, 1966, Q J R METEOROL SOC, V92, P128 SWETNAM TW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3128 SWETNAM TW, 1993, SCIENCE, V262, P885 SWETNAM TW, 1990, SCIENCE, V249, P1017 TARREGA R, 1997, PLANT ECOL, V129, P179 TENHUNEN JD, 1981, OECOLOGIA, V50, P5 TILMAN D, 1985, AM NAT, V125, P827 TRABAUD L, 1997, CAN J BOT, V75, P1012 TRABAUD L, 1994, INT C FOR FIR RES 2, P545 TRABAUD L, 1976, OECOLOG PLANTAR, V11, P117 TRABAUD L, 1992, PIRINEOS, V140, P89 TURNER MG, 1989, OIKOS, V55, P121 USO JL, 1997, PLANT ECOL, V132, P59 VANDERMAAREL E, 1993, J VEG SCI, V4, P733 VAZQUEZ A, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V147, P55 VAZQUEZ A, 1993, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V24, P129 VIEGAS DX, 1998, LARGE FOREST FIRES, P31 WHELAN RJ, 1995, ECOLOGY FIRE WULLSCHLEGER SD, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V150, P489 ZHANG HH, 1996, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V23, P561 549CE GLOB CHANGE BIOL}, journal = {Glob. Change Biol.}, keywords = {arbutus-unedo-l-elevated-atmospheric-co2-erica-arborea-l, climate-change-fire-regime-mediterranean-type-ecosystem, efficiency-seedling-dynamics-evergreen-shrub-pinus-pinaster, file-import-08-05-30, gas-exchange-water-relations-surface-fire-transpiration, process-based-simulation-model}, number = {5}, pages = {423-437+}, pdf = {internal-pdf://Mouillot\_etal\_2002-0766400768/Mouillot\_etal\_2002.pdf}, posted-at = {2008-05-30 19:11:48}, priority = {2}, title = {Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem}, url = {#}, volume = {8}, year = {2002} }

TY - JOUR ID - 329 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2850544 N2 - The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean-type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long-term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub-dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff. IS - 5 JF - Glob. Change Biol. TI - Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem VL - 8 SP - 423-437 KW - arbutus-unedo-l-elevated-atmospheric-co2-erica-arborea-l KW - climate-change-fire-regime-mediterranean-type-ecosystem KW - efficiency-seedling-dynamics-evergreen-shrub-pinus-pinaster KW - file-import-08-05-30 KW - gas-exchange-water-relations-surface-fire-transpiration KW - process-based-simulation-model N1 - May N1 - Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem N1 - ISI:000175426300002 N1 - Cited Reference Count: 107 Cited References: *EUR CLIM SUPP NET, 1995, CLIM EUR RENC VAR PR ACEVEDO MF, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V87, P267 ARIANOUTSOUFARA.M, 1984, ACTA OECOL-OEC PLANT, V5, P387 ARMAND D, 1993, ANN SCI FOREST, V50, P79 BETTARINI I, 1995, TREE PHYSIOL, V15, P327 BOUGHTON WC, 1989, AUST J SOIL RES, V27, P511 BROCHET P, 1974, MONOGRAPHIE METEOROL, V65 BRUBAKER LB, 1986, VEGETATIO, V67, P119 CALLAWAY RM, 1993, ECOLOGY, V74, P1567 CAMPBELL GS, 1974, SOIL SCI, V117, P311 CASTELL C, 1994, ANN BOT-LONDON, V73, P595 CASTELL C, 1994, OECOLOGIA, V98, P201 CASTELL C, 1995, TREE PHYSIOL, V15, P405 CEULEMANS R, 1994, NEW PHYTOL, V127, P425 CLAPP RB, 1978, WATER RESOUR RES, V14, P601 CORREIA OA, 1994, ACTA OECOL, V15, P289 DAVIS FW, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE MEDITE, P435 DELILLIS M, 1992, VEGETATIO, V99, P83 EAGLESON PS, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P325 EAMUS D, 1989, ADV ECOL RES, V19, P1 ESCUDERO A, 1992, OECOLOGIA, V90, P80 FARQUHAR GD, 1989, STABLE ISOTOPES ECOL, P21 FEDDES RA, 1978, SIMULATION MONOGRAPH FERRANDO JM, 1986, METHODE EVALUATION P FLECK I, 1995, ACTA OECOL, V16, P55 FRIEND AD, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V95, P249 FULTON MR, 1991, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V42, P23 GORDON HB, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P83 GREGORY JM, 1995, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V121, P1451 GUEHL JM, 1994, TREE PHYSIOL, V14, P707 GUILLEN DF, 1994, J VEG SCI, V5, P497 HARLEY PC, 1995, ECOL STU AN, V117, P35 HARRISON EA, 1990, VEGETATIO, V86, P1 HATTON TJ, 1997, FUNCT ECOL, V11, P665 JARVIS AJ, 1999, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V22, P639 KEELEY JE, 1981, WO26 USDA FOR SERV KITZBERGER T, 2001, IN PRESS GLOBAL ECOL KUMMEROW J, 1977, OECOLOGIA, V29, P163 LANSAC AR, 1994, VEGETATIO, V113, P141 LAVOREL S, 1998, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V7, P157 LEHOUEROU HN, 1984, J ARID ENVIRON, V7, P213 LLORET F, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P417 LOPEZSORIA L, 1992, OECOLOGIA, V91, P493 LOUSTAU D, 1996, OECOLOGIA, V107, P33 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1978, INTERACTIVE FORECAST MARTIN P, 1992, AUST J BOT, V40, P717 MARTINEZSANCHEZ JJ, 1996, ECOLOGIA MEDITERRANE, V23, P17 MAUCHAMP A, 1994, ECOL MODEL, V71, P107 MCKENNEY MS, 1993, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V64, P81 MCMURTRIE R, 1983, ANN BOT-LONDON, V52, P437 MESLEARD F, 1991, J VEG SCI, V2, P155 MESLEARD F, 1989, OECOLOGIA, V80, P127 MILLER C, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P202 MILLER C, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V114, P113 MILLER C, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P145 MILLER PC, 1983, OECOLOGIA, V56, P385 MORENO JM, 1996, AVANCES FITOSOCIOLOG, P23 MORENO JM, 1998, LARGE FOREST FIRES, P159 MOUILLOT F, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V147, P75 MOUILLOT F, 1998, FOREST FIRE RES, V2, P2533 MOUILLOT F, 2002, UNPUB J VEGETATION S NUNEZOLIVERA E, 1995, VEGETATIO, V117, P123 OECHEL WC, 1995, ECOL STU AN, V117, P58 OSBORNE CP, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P445 OVERPECK JT, 1990, NATURE, V343, P51 PACALA SW, 1993, CAN J FOREST RES, V23, P1980 PAPIO C, 1990, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V35, P249 PARASKEVOPOULOS SP, 1994, VEGETATIO, V115, P109 PATON D, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V38, P221 PENUELAS J, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V109, P69 PEREIRA JMC, 1995, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V5, P35 PICON C, 1996, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V19, P182 PINOL J, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P345 PITTOCK AB, 1991, INT HYDR WAT RES S I, P182 PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 RAMBAL S, 1995, ECOL STU AN, V117, P386 RAMBAL S, 1985, INT J REMOTE SENS, V6, P1475 RAMBAL S, 1998, LARGE FOREST FIRES, P187 RAMBAL S, 1993, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V16, P35 RAMBAL S, 2001, TERRESTRIAL GLOBAL P, P315 REYES O, 1998, ANN SCI FOREST, V55, P837 RHIZOPOULOU S, 1991, J EXP BOT, V42, P627 RIBA M, 1998, ACTA OECOL, V19, P9 RITCHIE JT, 1972, WATER RESOUR RES, V8, P1204 ROY J, 1992, J APPL ECOL, V29, P647 RUNNING SW, 1991, TREE PHYSIOL, V9, P147 SHUGART HH, 1980, BIOSCIENCE, V30, P308 STANHILL G, 1966, Q J R METEOROL SOC, V92, P128 SWETNAM TW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3128 SWETNAM TW, 1993, SCIENCE, V262, P885 SWETNAM TW, 1990, SCIENCE, V249, P1017 TARREGA R, 1997, PLANT ECOL, V129, P179 TENHUNEN JD, 1981, OECOLOGIA, V50, P5 TILMAN D, 1985, AM NAT, V125, P827 TRABAUD L, 1997, CAN J BOT, V75, P1012 TRABAUD L, 1994, INT C FOR FIR RES 2, P545 TRABAUD L, 1976, OECOLOG PLANTAR, V11, P117 TRABAUD L, 1992, PIRINEOS, V140, P89 TURNER MG, 1989, OIKOS, V55, P121 USO JL, 1997, PLANT ECOL, V132, P59 VANDERMAAREL E, 1993, J VEG SCI, V4, P733 VAZQUEZ A, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V147, P55 VAZQUEZ A, 1993, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V24, P129 VIEGAS DX, 1998, LARGE FOREST FIRES, P31 WHELAN RJ, 1995, ECOLOGY FIRE WULLSCHLEGER SD, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V150, P489 ZHANG HH, 1996, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V23, P561 549CE GLOB CHANGE BIOL AU - Mouillot, F AU - Rambal, S AU - Joffre, R PY - 2002/// UR - # ER -