Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate processes. We apply the technique to a panel of bilateral U.S. dollar rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by Taylor rule, monetary and purchasing power parity (PPP) models. For long horizon (8 and 12 quarter) forecasts, we tend to improve on the forecast of a “no change” benchmark in the late (1999-2007) but not early (1987-1998) parts of our sample.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.