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Filter Rules: Follow the Trend, or Take the Contrarian Approach?

by: James Kozyra, Camillo Lento
Social Science Research Network Working Paper Series (6 November 2010)  Key: citeulike:12119213

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Abstract

This paper compares a trending approach to the filter trading rule against a contrarian approach. It is found that, after adjusting for transaction costs, the contrarian approach consistently outperforms the trending approach, and is able to earn returns in excess of the buy-and-hold trading strategy. The significance and robustness of the results are supported by a bootstrap simulation and sub-period analysis, respectively.


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