Buffeting flow on transonic aerofoils serves as a model problem for the more complex three-dimensional flows responsible for aeroplane buffet. The origins of transonic aerofoil buffet are linked to a global instability, which leads to shock oscillations and dramatic lift fluctuations. The problem is analysed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier the lower branch shows features consistent with a supercritical bifurcation. The unstable modes provide insight into the basic character of buffeting flow at near-critical conditions and are consistent with fully nonlinear simulations. The results provide further evidence linking the transonic buffet onset to a global instability.