Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system Export

@article{Lenton+2007, abstract = {10.1073/pnas.0705414105 The term \^{a}€œtipping point\^{a}€ commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term \^{a}€œtipping element\^{a}€ to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.}, author = {Lenton, Timothy M. and Held, Hermann and Kriegler, Elmar and Hall, Jim W. and Lucht, Wolfgang and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Schellnhuber, Hans J.}, citeulike-article-id = {2392774}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.full.pdf}, citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/105/6/1786}, citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18258748}, citeulike-linkout-5 = {http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=18258748}, day = {12}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0705414105}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, keywords = {climate\_science}, month = {February}, number = {6}, pages = {1786--1793}, posted-at = {2009-03-12 15:38:53}, priority = {2}, title = {Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105}, volume = {105}, year = {2008} }

TY - JOUR ID - Lenton+2007 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2392774 N2 - 10.1073/pnas.0705414105 The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. IS - 6 JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences EP - 1793 TI - Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system VL - 105 SP - 1786 KW - climate_science AU - Lenton, Timothy AU - Held, Hermann AU - Kriegler, Elmar AU - Hall, Jim AU - Lucht, Wolfgang AU - Rahmstorf, Stefan AU - Schellnhuber, Hans PY - 2008/02/12/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 ER -