Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe Export

@article{citeulike:295909, abstract = {10.1073/pnas.0409902102 Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42\% and 45-63\% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86\% and 17-86\%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (\^{a}‰ˆ60\% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.}, address = {Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-Unit\'{e} Mixte de Recherche 5175, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. thuiller@sanbi.org}, author = {Thuiller, Wilfried and Lavorel, Sandra and Ara\~{A}ºjo, Miguel B. and Sykes, Martin T. and Prentice, I. Colin}, citeulike-article-id = {295909}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0409902102}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/102/23/8245.abstract}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://www.pnas.org/content/102/23/8245.full.pdf}, citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15919825}, citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=15919825}, citeulike-linkout-5 = {http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?view=extended&origin=resultslist&eid=2-s2.0-20444364191}, citeulike-linkout-6 = {http://www.mncn.csic.es/pdf_web/maraujo/Thuiller%20et%20al%20PNAS%202005.pdf}, day = {7}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0409902102}, issn = {0027-8424}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, keywords = {change, climate, diversity, projection, sdm}, month = {June}, number = {23}, pages = {8245--8250}, posted-at = {2009-01-05 00:13:59}, priority = {2}, title = {Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0409902102}, volume = {102}, year = {2005} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:295909 L3 - citeulike-article-id:295909 N2 - 10.1073/pnas.0409902102 Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (≈60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability. IS - 23 JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America SN - 0027-8424 AD - Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-Unité Mixte de Recherche 5175, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. thuiller@sanbi.org EP - 8250 TI - Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe VL - 102 SP - 8245 KW - change KW - climate KW - diversity KW - projection KW - sdm AU - Thuiller, Wilfried AU - Lavorel, Sandra AU - Araújo, Miguel AU - Sykes, Martin AU - Prentice, Colin PY - 2005/06/07/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0409902102 ER -