Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors Export

@article{citeulike:3093216, abstract = {The personalistic theory of probability prescribes that personal probability assessments to be used in decision-making situations should correspond with the assessor's judgments. A payoff function which depends on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event which actually occurs may be used (1) to keep the assessor honest or (2) to evaluate the assessor. It is shown that with the exception of a logarithmic payoff function, these two uses of payoff functions for assessors are not compatible. This conflict is explained in terms of the differences in the situations facing the assessor and the evaluator (the user of the probabilistic predictions).}, author = {Winkler, Robert L.}, citeulike-article-id = {3093216}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2283486}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2283486}, doi = {10.2307/2283486}, journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association}, keywords = {scoring\_rules}, number = {327}, pages = {1073--1078}, posted-at = {2008-08-07 01:51:11}, priority = {3}, publisher = {American Statistical Association}, title = {Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2283486}, volume = {64}, year = {1969} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:3093216 L3 - citeulike-article-id:3093216 N2 - The personalistic theory of probability prescribes that personal probability assessments to be used in decision-making situations should correspond with the assessor's judgments. A payoff function which depends on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event which actually occurs may be used (1) to keep the assessor honest or (2) to evaluate the assessor. It is shown that with the exception of a logarithmic payoff function, these two uses of payoff functions for assessors are not compatible. This conflict is explained in terms of the differences in the situations facing the assessor and the evaluator (the user of the probabilistic predictions). IS - 327 JF - Journal of the American Statistical Association EP - 1078 TI - Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors PB - American Statistical Association VL - 64 SP - 1073 KW - scoring_rules AU - Winkler, Robert PY - 1969/// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2283486 ER -