A mechanism for pockets of predictability in complex adaptive systems Export

@article{citeulike:226613, abstract = {We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability ("prediction days"), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out of sample on synthetic minority and majority games as well as on real financial time series. The surprising large frequency of these prediction days implies a collective organization of agents and of their strategies which condense into transitional herding regimes.}, author = {Anderson, J. V. and Sornette, D.}, citeulike-article-id = {226613}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.edpsciences.org/10.1209/epl/i2005-10033-3}, comment = {Shows how agent-based modeling could be useful.}, journal = {Europhysics Letters}, keywords = {agentbased, cas, complexity, usefulness}, number = {5}, pages = {697--703}, posted-at = {2005-06-12 22:54:35}, priority = {2}, title = {A mechanism for pockets of predictability in complex adaptive systems}, url = {http://www.edpsciences.org/10.1209/epl/i2005-10033-3}, volume = {70}, year = {2005} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:226613 L3 - citeulike-article-id:226613 N2 - We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability ("prediction days"), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out of sample on synthetic minority and majority games as well as on real financial time series. The surprising large frequency of these prediction days implies a collective organization of agents and of their strategies which condense into transitional herding regimes. IS - 5 JF - Europhysics Letters EP - 703 TI - A mechanism for pockets of predictability in complex adaptive systems VL - 70 SP - 697 KW - agentbased KW - cas KW - complexity KW - usefulness N1 - Shows how agent-based modeling could be useful. AU - Anderson, JV AU - Sornette, D PY - 2005/// UR - http://www.edpsciences.org/10.1209/epl/i2005-10033-3 ER -