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Evaluation of Heterogeneity in Pharmacotherapy Trials for Drug Dependence: A Bayesian Approach Export

The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, Vol. 35, No. 2. (2009), pp. 95-102.

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<i>Aims</i>: Difficulty identifying effective pharmacotherapies for cocaine dependence has led to suggestions that subgroup differences may account for some of the heterogeneity in treatment response. Well-attested methodological difficulties associated with these analyses recommend the use of Bayesian statistical reasoning for evaluation of salient interaction effects. <i>Methods</i>: A secondary data analysis of a previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trial examines the interaction of decision-making, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, and citalopram in increasing longest sustained abstinence from cocaine use. <i>Results</i>: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 99% chance that improved decision-making enhances response to citalopram. Given the strong positive nature of this finding, a formal, quantitative Bayesian approach to evaluate the result from the perspective of a skeptic was applied. <i>Conclusions</i>: Bayesian statistical reasoning provides a formal means of weighing evidence for the presence of an interaction in scenarios where conventional, Frequentist analyses may be less informative. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of <i>The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse</i> for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix 1]


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