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Climate forcing from the transport sectors Export

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (7 January 2008), 0702958104.

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automobiles climate global_change radiative_forcings transportation

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Very interesting that they conclude that the net effect of shipping is to reduce the radiative forcing, within the timeframe of some hundred years.

I really do miss an appraisal of public transport and walking and cycling. Given certain uses of the money saved in the health care system, cycling could have quite substantial effects in reducing the radiative forcing, according to Paul Higgins. ( E.g. http://www.citeulike.org/article/1029142 )

mokgand (public note) - 2008-01-14 14:35:31

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Although the transport sector is responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions affecting climate, its overall contribution has not been quantified. We provide a comprehensive analysis of radiative forcing from the road transport, shipping, aviation, and rail subsectors, using both past- and forward-looking perspectives. We find that, since preindustrial times, transport has contributed approx15% and 31% of the total man-made CO2 and O3 forcing, respectively. A forward-looking perspective shows that the current emissions from transport are responsible for approx16% of the integrated net forcing over 100 years from all current man-made emissions. The dominating contributor to positive forcing (warming) is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By subsector, road transport is the largest contributor to warming. The transport sector also exerts cooling through reduced methane lifetime and atmospheric aerosol effects. Shipping causes net cooling, except on future time scales of several centuries. Much of the forcing from transport comes from emissions not covered by the Kyoto Protocol. 10.1073/pnas.0702958104


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