Uncertainty in natural resource decision support systems: sources, interpretation, and importance Export

@article{citeulike:3754128, abstract = {Decision support systems (DSS) have been defined as computer-based systems that integrate data sources with modeling and analytical tools; facilitate development, analysis, and ranking of alternatives; assist in management of uncertainty; and enhance overall problem comprehension. Of these capabilities, uncertainty assessment is the most poorly understood and implemented. Uncertainty assessment provides methodology to estimate the reliability of recommended alternatives, to place confidence intervals about the most likely outcome, or to quantify the likelihood of exceeding some environmental threshold. The extent to which this affects management decisions, and how it integrates with other management science disciplines such as risk assessment, remains largely unexplored territory. This paper briefly outlines sources of uncertainty in DSS, techniques for quantification, and then explores the relevance and importance of uncertainty in the larger decision-making context.}, author = {Mowrer, H.}, citeulike-article-id = {3754128}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1699(00)00113-7}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168-1699(00)00113-7}, doi = {10.1016/S0168-1699(00)00113-7}, issn = {01681699}, journal = {Computers and Electronics in Agriculture}, keywords = {spatial\_error, uncertainty}, month = {June}, number = {1-3}, pages = {139--154}, posted-at = {2008-12-08 05:15:17}, priority = {2}, title = {Uncertainty in natural resource decision support systems: sources, interpretation, and importance}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1699(00)00113-7}, volume = {27}, year = {2000} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:3754128 L3 - citeulike-article-id:3754128 N2 - Decision support systems (DSS) have been defined as computer-based systems that integrate data sources with modeling and analytical tools; facilitate development, analysis, and ranking of alternatives; assist in management of uncertainty; and enhance overall problem comprehension. Of these capabilities, uncertainty assessment is the most poorly understood and implemented. Uncertainty assessment provides methodology to estimate the reliability of recommended alternatives, to place confidence intervals about the most likely outcome, or to quantify the likelihood of exceeding some environmental threshold. The extent to which this affects management decisions, and how it integrates with other management science disciplines such as risk assessment, remains largely unexplored territory. This paper briefly outlines sources of uncertainty in DSS, techniques for quantification, and then explores the relevance and importance of uncertainty in the larger decision-making context. IS - 1-3 JF - Computers and Electronics in Agriculture SN - 01681699 EP - 154 TI - Uncertainty in natural resource decision support systems: sources, interpretation, and importance VL - 27 SP - 139 KW - spatial_error KW - uncertainty AU - Mowrer, H PY - 2000/06// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1699(00)00113-7 ER -