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The Decline of Employment Among Older People in Britainby: N. Cambell
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AbstractOlder men have experienced the largest falls in employment over the last twenty years. Two-fifths of men aged between 55 and 65 are without work, compared to one-fifth in 1979, and the difference is equivalent to 600,000 fewer jobs for this age group alone. Older women have not shared in the general rise in female employment. This paper analyses the Labour Force Survey and the first six waves of the British Household Panel Survey to examine why older people’s employment has fallen, which groups have been most affected, and whether these trends are likely to continue. Changes in employment between 1979 and 1997 have been reflected in opposite changes, not in unemployment, but in economic inactivity. Male employment has fallen furthest among people with the lowest, or no, educational qualifications. Panel data suggest that, among people aged over 45, two groups are most likely to leave the labour market. They are (a) people in the bottom quartile of the hourly wage distribution and (b) people with wages in the top half but who are also members of an occupational pension scheme. Return rates back into work are low. Transitions between unemployment, long-term sickness and retirement are significant, and almost always weaken attachment to the labour market. Explanations of the changes in male employment include occupational pensions, a shift in the relative demand for labour against older men (as relative wages and employment have both fallen), reduced labour supply, and age discrimination. Relatively few people report having suffered from age discrimination, so that is unlikely to be a major cause of the changes. Some of the reduction in labour supply will have resulted from voluntary decisions to retire early. Displaced older men experience sharp falls in wages returning to work and older men were likely to have been working in declining industries, however. Both these facts add weight to the view that much of the reduction in labour supply will have been either involuntary or the result of individuals making constrained choices.
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