September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100 Export

@article{citeulike:4871599, abstract = {The Arctic climate is changing rapidly1. From 1979 to 2006, September sea-ice extent decreased by almost 25\% or about 100,000 km2 per year (ref. 2). In September 2007, Arctic sea-ice extent reached its lowest level since satellite observations began3 and in September 2008, sea-ice cover was still low. This development has raised concerns that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in late summer in only a few decades, with important economic and geopolitical implications. Unfortunately, most current climate models underestimate significantly the observed trend in Arctic sea-ice decline4, leading to doubts regarding their projections for the timing of ice-free conditions. Here we analyse the simulated trends in past sea-ice cover in 18 state-of-art-climate models and find a direct relationship between the simulated evolution of September sea-ice cover over the twenty-first century and the magnitude of past trends in sea-ice cover. Using this relationship together with observed trends, we project the evolution of September sea-ice cover over the twenty-first century. We find that under a scenario with medium future greenhouse-gas emissions, the Arctic Ocean will probably be ice-free in September before the end of the twenty-first century.}, author = {Boe, Julien and Hall, Alex and Qu, Xin}, citeulike-article-id = {4871599}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467}, day = {15}, doi = {10.1038/ngeo467}, issn = {1752-0894}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, keywords = {arctic, calibration, climate, ensemble, gcm, ipcc, model, projections, sea-ice, summer, uncertainty}, month = {March}, number = {5}, pages = {341--343}, posted-at = {2009-06-16 16:06:45}, priority = {2}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, title = {September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467}, volume = {2}, year = {2009} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:4871599 L3 - citeulike-article-id:4871599 N2 - The Arctic climate is changing rapidly1. From 1979 to 2006, September sea-ice extent decreased by almost 25% or about 100,000 km2 per year (ref. 2). In September 2007, Arctic sea-ice extent reached its lowest level since satellite observations began3 and in September 2008, sea-ice cover was still low. This development has raised concerns that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in late summer in only a few decades, with important economic and geopolitical implications. Unfortunately, most current climate models underestimate significantly the observed trend in Arctic sea-ice decline4, leading to doubts regarding their projections for the timing of ice-free conditions. Here we analyse the simulated trends in past sea-ice cover in 18 state-of-art-climate models and find a direct relationship between the simulated evolution of September sea-ice cover over the twenty-first century and the magnitude of past trends in sea-ice cover. Using this relationship together with observed trends, we project the evolution of September sea-ice cover over the twenty-first century. We find that under a scenario with medium future greenhouse-gas emissions, the Arctic Ocean will probably be ice-free in September before the end of the twenty-first century. IS - 5 JF - Nature Geoscience SN - 1752-0894 EP - 343 TI - September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100 PB - Nature Publishing Group VL - 2 SP - 341 KW - arctic KW - calibration KW - climate KW - ensemble KW - gcm KW - ipcc KW - model KW - projections KW - sea-ice KW - summer KW - uncertainty AU - Boe, Julien AU - Hall, Alex AU - Qu, Xin PY - 2009/03/15/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467 ER -