Anthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction Export

@article{citeulike:5690490, abstract = {We quantify the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic influences on the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ and the CO₂ airborne fraction, considering both interdecadal trends and interannual variability. A combined ENSO-Volcanic Index (EVI) relates most (\~{}75\%) of the interannual variability in CO₂ growth rate to the El-Ni\~{n}o-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) climate mode and volcanic activity. Analysis of several CO₂ data sets with removal of the EVI-correlated component confirms a previous finding of a detectable increasing trend in CO₂ airborne fraction (defined using total anthropogenic emissions including fossil fuels and land use change) over the period 1959–2006, at a proportional growth rate 0.24\% y^\−1 with probability \~{}0.9 of a positive trend. This implies that the atmospheric CO₂ growth rate increased slightly faster than total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. An extended form of the Kaya identity relates the increase in the CO₂ growth rate (1.9\% y^\−1 over 1959–2006) to the growth rates of four global driving factors: population (contributing +1.7\% y^\−1); per capita income (+1.8\% y^\−1); the total carbon intensity of the global economy (\−1.7\% y^\−1); and airborne fraction (averaging +0.2\% y^\−1 with strong interannual variability). Together, the recent (post-2000) increase in growth of per capita income and decline in the negative growth (improvement) in the carbon intensity of the economy will drive a significant acceleration in the CO₂ growth rate over coming decades, unless these recent trends reverse. To achieve an annual reduction rate in total emissions of \−2\% y^\−1 (which would halve emissions in 35 years) in the presence of a per-capita income growth rate of 2\% y^\−1 and a population growth rate of 1\% y^\−1, it is necessary to achieve a decline in total carbon intensity of the economy at a rate of around \−5\% y^\−1, three times the 1959–2006 average.}, author = {Raupach, M. R. and Canadell, J. G. and Le Qu\'{e}r\'{e}, C.}, citeulike-article-id = {5690490}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/5/2867/2008/}, day = {11}, journal = {Biogeosciences Discussions}, keywords = {anthropogenic, atmosphere, biogeochemistry, carbon, climate, co2, emissions, trend}, month = {July}, number = {4}, pages = {2867--2896}, posted-at = {2009-11-13 15:42:57}, priority = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus Publications}, title = {{A}nthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction}, url = {http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/5/2867/2008/}, volume = {5}, year = {2008} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:5690490 L3 - citeulike-article-id:5690490 N2 - We quantify the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic influences on the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ and the CO₂ airborne fraction, considering both interdecadal trends and interannual variability. A combined ENSO-Volcanic Index (EVI) relates most (~75%) of the interannual variability in CO₂ growth rate to the El-Niño-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) climate mode and volcanic activity. Analysis of several CO₂ data sets with removal of the EVI-correlated component confirms a previous finding of a detectable increasing trend in CO₂ airborne fraction (defined using total anthropogenic emissions including fossil fuels and land use change) over the period 1959–2006, at a proportional growth rate 0.24% y^−1 with probability ~0.9 of a positive trend. This implies that the atmospheric CO₂ growth rate increased slightly faster than total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. An extended form of the Kaya identity relates the increase in the CO₂ growth rate (1.9% y^−1 over 1959–2006) to the growth rates of four global driving factors: population (contributing +1.7% y^−1); per capita income (+1.8% y^−1); the total carbon intensity of the global economy (−1.7% y^−1); and airborne fraction (averaging +0.2% y^−1 with strong interannual variability). Together, the recent (post-2000) increase in growth of per capita income and decline in the negative growth (improvement) in the carbon intensity of the economy will drive a significant acceleration in the CO₂ growth rate over coming decades, unless these recent trends reverse. To achieve an annual reduction rate in total emissions of −2% y^−1 (which would halve emissions in 35 years) in the presence of a per-capita income growth rate of 2% y^−1 and a population growth rate of 1% y^−1, it is necessary to achieve a decline in total carbon intensity of the economy at a rate of around −5% y^−1, three times the 1959–2006 average. IS - 4 JF - Biogeosciences Discussions EP - 2896 TI - {A}nthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction PB - Copernicus Publications VL - 5 SP - 2867 KW - anthropogenic KW - atmosphere KW - biogeochemistry KW - carbon KW - climate KW - co2 KW - emissions KW - trend AU - Raupach, MR AU - Canadell, JG AU - Le Quéré, C PY - 2008/07/11/ UR - http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/5/2867/2008/ ER -