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Assessing the potential long Export

Biogeosciences, Vol. 4, No. 4. (6 July 2007), pp. 481-492.

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calcium carbon climate ecosystem emic model ocean plankton projections species uncertainty

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Plankton manipulation experiments exhibit a wide range of sensitivities of biogenic calcification to simulated anthropogenic acidification of the ocean, with the "lab rat" of planktic calcifiers, <i>Emiliania huxleyi</i> apparently not representative of calcification generally. We assess the implications of this observational uncertainty by creating an ensemble of realizations of an Earth system model that encapsulates a comparable range of uncertainty in calcification response to ocean acidification. We predict that a substantial reduction in marine carbonate production is possible in the future, with enhanced ocean CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration across the model ensemble driving a 4–13% reduction in the year 3000 atmospheric fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> burden. Concurrent changes in ocean circulation and surface temperatures in the model contribute about one third to the increase in CO<sub>2</sub> uptake. We find that uncertainty in the predicted strength of CO<sub>2</sub>-calcification feedback seems to be dominated by the assumption as to which species of calcifier contribute most to carbonate production in the open ocean.


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