The Shape of Things to Come: Why Is Climate Change So Predictable? Export

@article{citeulike:5971621, abstract = {The framework of feedback analysis is used to explore the controls on the shape of the probability distribution of global mean surface temperature response to climate forcing. It is shown that ocean heat uptake, which delays and damps the temperature rise, can be represented as a transient negative feedback. This transient negative feedback causes the transient climate change to have a narrower probability distribution than that of the equilibrium climate response (the climate sensitivity). In this sense, climate change is much more predictable than climate sensitivity. The width of the distribution grows gradually over time, a consequence of which is that the larger the climate change being contemplated, the greater the uncertainty is about when that change will be realized. Another consequence of this slow growth is that further efforts to constrain climate sensitivity will be of very limited value for climate projections on societally relevant time scales. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect on climate predictability of reducing uncertainty in the atmospheric feedbacks is greater than the effect of reducing uncertainty in ocean feedbacks by the same proportion. However, at least at the global scale, the total impact of uncertainty in climate feedbacks is dwarfed by the impact of uncertainty in climate forcing, which in turn is contingent on choices made about future anthropogenic emissions.}, author = {Baker, Marcia B. and Roe, Gerard H.}, citeulike-article-id = {5971621}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2647.1}, day = {1}, doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI2647.1}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, keywords = {atmosphere, climate, climate-sensitivity, emissions, feedback, ocean, prediction, projections, transient, uncertainty}, month = {September}, number = {17}, pages = {4574--4589}, posted-at = {2009-10-19 17:34:52}, priority = {2}, title = {The Shape of Things to Come: Why Is Climate Change So Predictable?}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2647.1}, volume = {22}, year = {2009} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:5971621 L3 - citeulike-article-id:5971621 N2 - The framework of feedback analysis is used to explore the controls on the shape of the probability distribution of global mean surface temperature response to climate forcing. It is shown that ocean heat uptake, which delays and damps the temperature rise, can be represented as a transient negative feedback. This transient negative feedback causes the transient climate change to have a narrower probability distribution than that of the equilibrium climate response (the climate sensitivity). In this sense, climate change is much more predictable than climate sensitivity. The width of the distribution grows gradually over time, a consequence of which is that the larger the climate change being contemplated, the greater the uncertainty is about when that change will be realized. Another consequence of this slow growth is that further efforts to constrain climate sensitivity will be of very limited value for climate projections on societally relevant time scales. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect on climate predictability of reducing uncertainty in the atmospheric feedbacks is greater than the effect of reducing uncertainty in ocean feedbacks by the same proportion. However, at least at the global scale, the total impact of uncertainty in climate feedbacks is dwarfed by the impact of uncertainty in climate forcing, which in turn is contingent on choices made about future anthropogenic emissions. IS - 17 JF - Journal of Climate EP - 4589 TI - The Shape of Things to Come: Why Is Climate Change So Predictable? VL - 22 SP - 4574 KW - atmosphere KW - climate KW - climate-sensitivity KW - emissions KW - feedback KW - ocean KW - prediction KW - projections KW - transient KW - uncertainty AU - Baker, Marcia AU - Roe, Gerard PY - 2009/09/01/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2647.1 ER -