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Implementing Optimal Allocation in Sequential Binary Response Experiments |
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AbstractFor sequential experiments with K treatments, we establish two formal optimization criteria to find optimal allocation strategies. Both criteria involve the sample sizes on each treatment and a concave noncentrality parameter from a multivariate test. We show that these two criteria are equivalent.We apply this result to specific questions: (1) How do we maximize power of a multivariate test of homogeneity with binary response?, and (2) for fixed power, how do we minimize expected treatment failures? Because the solutions depend on unknown parameters, we describe a response-adaptive randomization procedure that “targets” the optimal allocation and provides increases in power along the lines of 2–4\\ over complete randomization for equal allocation. The increase in power contradicts the conclusions of other authors who have explored other randomization procedures for K = 2 and have found that the variability induced by randomization negates any benefit of targeting an optimal allocation.
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