Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey Export

@article{citeulike:2861221, abstract = {Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments.}, author = {Geels, Frank W. and Smit, Wim A.}, citeulike-article-id = {2861221}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00036-7}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0016-3287(00)00036-7}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V65-419BGDG-4/1/71b6c4c7bcf4b39fdcec759c73b11150}, doi = {10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00036-7}, journal = {Futures}, keywords = {forecasting, technology}, month = {November}, number = {9-10}, pages = {867--885}, posted-at = {2009-11-10 10:24:23}, priority = {2}, title = {Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00036-7}, volume = {32}, year = {2000} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:2861221 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2861221 N2 - Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments. IS - 9-10 JF - Futures EP - 885 TI - Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey VL - 32 SP - 867 KW - forecasting KW - technology AU - Geels, Frank AU - Smit, Wim PY - 2000/11// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00036-7 ER -