Using sighting records to declare eradication of an invasive species Export

@article{citeulike:3768705, abstract = {A major challenge for eradication managers is deciding when a programme can be deemed successful. Regan et al. (2006) were the first to pose this problem within a decision theory framework, minimizing the net expected cost of the decision. The optimal time to declare eradication was based on the number of consecutive surveys in which the species was not found ('absent surveys'). Their formulation used estimates of detectability and persistence 2013 parameters that are often difficult to estimate 2013 to calculate the probability that the invasive species is still present. Here we use a similar decision-making framework but instead predict presence based on the pattern of sightings, using a method developed by Solow (1993a) that assumes a constant sighting rate. This method does not require estimates of detectability and persistence. We find the number of absent surveys after which eradication should be declared, using three approaches: a stochastic dynamic program, which finds the exact optimal solution, a rule of thumb, and an approximation. We then compare these results with a method assuming a declining sighting rate. Both the rule of thumb and approximation give results that are close to the exact optimal solution. The rule of thumb with the declining sighting rate method generally gives a larger optimal number of absent surveys. Synthesis and applications. Analysing this problem within a decision theory framework enables us to minimize the expected cost of declaring eradication. By using the more readily available sighting data, we make this framework applicable to a wider range of invasive species. Our approximation is a simple calculation, making it an accessible tool that could be applied by managers of eradication programmes for invasive species.}, address = {Commonwealth Environment Research Facility (Applied Environmental Decision Analysis), School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia}, author = {Rout, Tracy M. and Salomon, Yacov and Mccarthy, Michael A.}, citeulike-article-id = {3768705}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01586.x}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/121539975/ABSTRACT}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01586.x}, journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology}, keywords = {bayesian, costs, data, decision, detectability, economic, of, presenceabsence, rule, statistics, theory, thumb, weed}, number = {9999}, posted-at = {2008-12-10 19:02:12}, priority = {2}, title = {Using sighting records to declare eradication of an invasive species}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01586.x}, volume = {9999}, year = {2008} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:3768705 L3 - citeulike-article-id:3768705 N2 - A major challenge for eradication managers is deciding when a programme can be deemed successful. Regan et al. (2006) were the first to pose this problem within a decision theory framework, minimizing the net expected cost of the decision. The optimal time to declare eradication was based on the number of consecutive surveys in which the species was not found ('absent surveys'). Their formulation used estimates of detectability and persistence 2013 parameters that are often difficult to estimate 2013 to calculate the probability that the invasive species is still present. Here we use a similar decision-making framework but instead predict presence based on the pattern of sightings, using a method developed by Solow (1993a) that assumes a constant sighting rate. This method does not require estimates of detectability and persistence. We find the number of absent surveys after which eradication should be declared, using three approaches: a stochastic dynamic program, which finds the exact optimal solution, a rule of thumb, and an approximation. We then compare these results with a method assuming a declining sighting rate. Both the rule of thumb and approximation give results that are close to the exact optimal solution. The rule of thumb with the declining sighting rate method generally gives a larger optimal number of absent surveys. Synthesis and applications. Analysing this problem within a decision theory framework enables us to minimize the expected cost of declaring eradication. By using the more readily available sighting data, we make this framework applicable to a wider range of invasive species. Our approximation is a simple calculation, making it an accessible tool that could be applied by managers of eradication programmes for invasive species. IS - 9999 JF - Journal of Applied Ecology AD - Commonwealth Environment Research Facility (Applied Environmental Decision Analysis), School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia TI - Using sighting records to declare eradication of an invasive species VL - 9999 KW - bayesian KW - costs KW - data KW - decision KW - detectability KW - economic KW - of KW - presenceabsence KW - rule KW - statistics KW - theory KW - thumb KW - weed AU - Rout, Tracy AU - Salomon, Yacov AU - Mccarthy, Michael PY - 2008/// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01586.x ER -