The onset of turbulence in shear flows is characterized by turbulent patches bounded by regions of laminar flow. At low Reynolds numbers localized turbulence relaminarises, raising the question of whether it is transient in nature or it becomes sustained at a critical threshold. We present extensive numerical simulations and a rigorous statistical analysis of the data, in order to shed light on the sources of the discrepancies present in the literature. The results are in excellent quantitative agreement with recent experiments and show that the probability of relaminarisation remains finite. In addition, we provide evidence for a lower bound in Reynolds number below which there are no meta-stable characteristics of the transients.