Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992 Export

@article{hegremfl2001, abstract = {Coherent democracies and harshly authoritarian states have few civil wars, and intermediate regimes are the most conflict-prone. Domestic violence also seems to be associated with political change, whether toward greater democracy or greater autocracy. Is the greater violence of intermediate regimes equivalent to the finding that states in political transition experience more violence? If both level of democracy and political change are relevant, to what extent is civil violence related to each? Based on an analysis of the period 1816-1992, we conclude that intermediate regimes are most prone to civil war, even when they have had time to stabilize from a regime change. In the long run, since intermediate regimes are less stable than autocracies, which in turn are less stable than democracies, durable democracy is the most probable end-point of the democratization process. The democratic civil peace is not only more just than the autocratic peace but also more stable.}, author = {Hegre, H\r{a}vard and Ellingsen, Tanja and Gates, Scott and Gleditsch, Nils P.}, citeulike-article-id = {1201590}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3117627}, journal = {The American Political Science Review}, keywords = {art\_misperceptions, civil\_war, conflict, empirical}, number = {1}, pages = {33--48}, posted-at = {2008-02-29 19:53:45}, priority = {2}, title = {Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3117627}, volume = {95}, year = {2001} }

TY - JOUR ID - hegremfl2001 L3 - citeulike-article-id:1201590 N2 - Coherent democracies and harshly authoritarian states have few civil wars, and intermediate regimes are the most conflict-prone. Domestic violence also seems to be associated with political change, whether toward greater democracy or greater autocracy. Is the greater violence of intermediate regimes equivalent to the finding that states in political transition experience more violence? If both level of democracy and political change are relevant, to what extent is civil violence related to each? Based on an analysis of the period 1816-1992, we conclude that intermediate regimes are most prone to civil war, even when they have had time to stabilize from a regime change. In the long run, since intermediate regimes are less stable than autocracies, which in turn are less stable than democracies, durable democracy is the most probable end-point of the democratization process. The democratic civil peace is not only more just than the autocratic peace but also more stable. IS - 1 JF - The American Political Science Review EP - 48 TI - Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992 VL - 95 SP - 33 KW - art_misperceptions KW - civil_war KW - conflict KW - empirical AU - Hegre, Håvard AU - Ellingsen, Tanja AU - Gates, Scott AU - Gleditsch, Nils PY - 2001/// UR - http://www.jstor.org/stable/3117627 ER -