Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences Export

@article{Oreskes.etal07a, abstract = {Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic. 10.1126/science.263.5147.641}, author = {Oreskes, Naomi and Shrader-Frechette, Kristin and Belitz, Kenneth}, citeulike-article-id = {2391437}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5147.641}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/263/5147/641.abstract}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/263/5147/641.full.pdf}, citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/263/5147/641}, citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://view.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17747657}, citeulike-linkout-5 = {http://www.hubmed.org/display.cgi?uids=17747657}, day = {4}, doi = {10.1126/science.263.5147.641}, journal = {Science}, keywords = {modelling, sensitivity-analysis}, month = {February}, number = {5147}, pages = {641--646}, posted-at = {2009-10-30 15:05:27}, priority = {3}, title = {Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5147.641}, volume = {263}, year = {1994} }

TY - JOUR ID - Oreskes.etal07a L3 - citeulike-article-id:2391437 N2 - Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic. 10.1126/science.263.5147.641 IS - 5147 JF - Science EP - 646 TI - Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences VL - 263 SP - 641 KW - modelling KW - sensitivity-analysis AU - Oreskes, Naomi AU - Shrader-Frechette, Kristin AU - Belitz, Kenneth PY - 1994/02/04/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5147.641 ER -